TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas Jayhawks Free Pick 10/12/13
Kansas Jayhawks (2-2) at TCU Horned Frogs (2-3)
NCAAF Football: Saturday, October 12, 2013 at 12:00 pm (Amon Carter Stadium)
The Line: TCU Horned Frogs -24.5 -- Over/Under: 45 See the Latest Odds
Storyline: TCU could get little going offensively against Oklahoma Saturday, but were somehow in it till the end, ultimately gashed by Brennan Clay’s 76-yard TD run late in the fourth that gave the Sooners just enough for the 20-17 win. Kansas, meanwhile, comes in off a 54-16 spanking against a Texas Tech team they held scoreless in the first quarter then let rattle off 54 straight for the rout.
The Breakdown: The Horned Frogs came into the season as a contender for the Big 12 title, but the loss of Sr. QB Casey Pachall in week 2 has TCU struggling offensively and sitting at 2-3 for 7th place in the conference. The Frogs are now just trying to lift the funk against Kansas this week before games at Oklahoma State and Texas follow. Against Oklahoma Saturday, the Horned Frogs struggled mightily on the ground and were unable to get into plus territory the entire first half or record a single first down until the third quarter. They managed 210 total yards and just 44 rushing. Soph. QB Trevone Boykin finished with 166 yards on 12-of-18 passing and 18 yards rushing and two touchdowns on 12 carries. TCU managed just 3-of-14 third down conversions. Defensively, the Horned Frogs stifled the OU passing game, surrendering just 166 yards passing and keeping the Sooners to just 3-of-13 third down conversions, but surrendered 203 yards rushing.
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
The Jayhawks looked poised for the upset against Texas Tech for about 15 minutes, taking a 10-0 lead into the second quarter behind a 36-yard field goal from Soph. Kicker Matthew Wyman and 25-yard TD pass from Jr. QB Jake Heaps. Then the skies opened up and rained touchdowns and field goals to the tune of 54 straight points, to which Kansas had no answer. The Jayhawks managed 273 total yards and just 53 yards rushing. Heaps connected on 16-of-32 for 189 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 pick. Jr. RB Tony Pierson had a big day with 6 catches for 116 yards. The Jayhawks committed 4 turnovers and were just 3-of-16 on third down conversions. Defensively, Kansas surrendered 518 total yards, 404 through the air and 114 on the ground.
Betting Trends: TCU is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games, 1-6 ATS in its last 7 home games, 18-6 SU in its last 24 home games, 2-5 SU in its last 7 home games, the total has gone under in 4 of TCU’s last 5 games, and the total has gone over in 5 of TCU’s last 7 home games. Kansas is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games, 4-21 SU in its last 25 games, 1-5 ATS in its last 6 road games, 0-5 SU in its last 5 road games and the total has gone under in 4 of Kansas’ last 5 games.
Rick’s Pick: The line in this one is currently set at +24.5 for Kansas with a 45 point total. With a TCU offense that’s struggling to get absolutely anything going, that’s a lot to lay down. Even against a woeful Kansas team that ranks near the bottom of the FBS in nearly every offensive statistical category. Somehow, though, the Jayhwaks rank a middle of the road 56th in the country in points against at 25.3. Not much to hang your hat on, but enough to stay away from the points and take the over.
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