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Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners Free Pick 10/12/13

Oklahoma Sooners (5-0) at Texas Longhorns (3-2)

NCAAF Football: Saturday, October 12, 2013 at 12:00 pm (Cotton Bowl, Dallas, TX)

The Line: Texas Longhorns 14 -- Over/Under: 56 See the Latest Odds


Storyline: This year’s installment of the Red River Rivalry won’t hold as much BCS weight as in years past with Texas barely clinging to life and 12th-ranked Oklahoma a double-digit favorite heading into the game. Typically, these two heavyweights would use this game as a launching pad into the national title debate and undefeated Oklahoma still might get there at some point this season, but a win here over a Longhorns team that’s struggled to a 3-2 record won’t lend them that level of national respect. For Texas, the upset would snap a three-year losing streak to the Sooners and take some heat off Mack Brown for at least another week.

The Breakdown: The Sooners fought off a pesky TCU team 20-17 Saturday that were stifled to just 210 total yards, but somehow hung around until Sr. Brennan Clay’s 76-yard TD run late in the fourth quarter put OU far enough ahead to seal it. It was another impressive defensive showing from the Sooners, who now own the FBS’ sixth-ranked defense and are making their mark as one of the country’s best. The Sooners kept TCU out of plus territory and stopped them from managing a single first down until the third quarter, holding them to 3-of-22 third down conversions. Soph. Trevone Boykin, the Big 12’s most dangerous dual threat QB, was held to 166 yards passing and just 18 yards rushing. Offensively, the Sooners tallied 355 total yards, 153 through the air and 203 on the ground. Jr. QB Blake Bell connected on 20-of-31 for 152 yards and added 61 yards rushing on 14 carries. Brennan Clay carried 9 times for 111 yards and 1 touchdown.

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Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners Free Pick 10/12/13

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

The Horns needed a late surge to get past Iowa State 31-30 Thursday in a game highlighted by Texas’ defensive issues this season. They conceded 463 total yards, 262 yards passing and 201 rushing. And if not for a controversial end that saw Soph. Texas RB fumble twice inside the Iowa State 10, but twice keep the ball, this game would have had the opposite outcome. Sr. QB McCoy scored on a 1-yard keeper with 51 seconds left for the win. McCoy, who will also get the start against OU Saturday, was in for Jr. David Ash, who suffered a concussion against Kansas State and continues to display lingering symptoms. McCoy went 26-of-45 for 244 yards and 1 touchdown. Soph RB Johnathan Gray rushed for 89 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries.

Betting Trends: Oklahoma is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games, , 9-4 SU in its last 13 games, the total has gone under in 5 of Oklahoma’s last 7 games and the total has gone over in 4 of Oklahoma’s last 5 games against Texas. Texas is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games, 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games versus Oklahoma, 4-9 SU in its last 13 games against Oklahoma, the total has gone over in 6 of the Longhorns’ last 7 games and the total has gone over Texas’s last 5 games against Oklahoma.

Rick’s Pick: The line for this game is currently set at -14 for OU with a total of 56. This is a big game every time it’s played, regardless of stats and records. And depending on how fired up they are, we could get the Texas team that got flattened by BYU or the one that took out K-State. Or the one that probably should have lost the Iowa State game. Conversely, the Sooner defense is becoming a stalwart and appears to be for real, so that’s the biggest hook at this point. The Sooners cover.

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