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Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Iowa State Cyclones Free Pick 10/12/13

Iowa State Cyclones (1-3) at Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-0)

NCAAF Football: Saturday, October 12, 2013 at 12:00 pm (Jones AT&T Stadium)

The Line: Texas Tech Red Raiders -14.5 -- Over/Under: 56 See the Latest Odds

TV: FOX Sports 1

Storyline: The Red Raiders are still unblemished after a 54-16 rout of Kansas Saturday, but it may have come at the expense of their starting QB. Freshman walk-on sensation Baker Mayfield went down with a knee injury and his status for this Saturday’s game is uncertain. Iowa State, meanwhile, come in off a controversial 31-30 loss to Texas that was seemingly ripped from their clutches by a series of questionable calls that kept alive the Longhorns’ game-winning drive.

The Breakdown: By the time Baker Mayfield went down late in the third quarter, he’d already engineered 37 unanswered points for a 37-10 lead and essentially had the game in his hip pocket. Mayfield, who reportedly suffered no structural damage to his knee, finished 33-of-51 for 368 yards and one pick.  Freshman backup Davis Webb came on in relief and connected on 3-of-6 for 36 yards and two touchdowns. Tech was sluggish at the start and trailed 10-0 in the second quarter until they reached plus territory and got on the board with a 23-yard Ryan Bustin field goal. The rout then began to take shape with 17 straight Red Raider points to end the half. Tech rolled up 518 total yards, 404 through the air and 114 on the ground. The Tech running game was once again scarce, a trend that'll need to be reversed once they start facing real defenses, namely Oklahoma in a couple of weeks. Jr. RB Kenny Williams carried 12 times for 42 yards and a score and Sr. RB Sadale Foster rushed for 34 yards on 3 carries. Sr. Eric Ward led all receivers with 7 catches for 122 yards and a score, while Jr. TE Jace Amaro caught 9 balls for 96 yards. On the defensive side, the Red Raiders held Kansas to 276 total yards, 3-of-16 third down conversions and forced 4 turnovers.

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Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Iowa State Cyclones Free Pick 10/12/13

Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports

Iowa State won virtually every phase of their game against Texas, but still let it slip away in heart-breaking fashion. After what appeared to be a clean strip of Soph. Texas RB Johnathan Gray by the Cyclones with less than two minutes left, the play was reviewed and possession given back to the Longhorns. Two plays later, Sr. QB Case McCoy scored the game-winner on a 1-yard keeper. Iowa State racked up 463 total yards to Texas’ 363, but committed two costly turnovers and ten penalties for 118 yards. Jr. RB Aaron Wimberly, who’s quickly becoming Iowa State’s top home-run threat, carried 29 times for 117 yards and a touchdown. Soph. QB Sam B. Richardson totaled 262 yards and 2 touchdowns with one pick on 16-of-26 passing and added 83 yards rushing on 17 carries. Soph. WR Quenton Bundrage had a monster outing, leading all receivers with 5 catches for 137 yards and a score.

Betting Trends: Texas Tech is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games, 5-1 SU in its last 6 games, 2-4 ATS in its last 6 home games, 5-0 SU in its last 5 home games, 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games versus Iowa State, and the total has gone under in 5 of Tech’s last 6 games. Iowa State is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games, 2-11 SU in its last 13 games, 7-3 ATS in its last 10 road games, 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games against Texas Tech and 2-4 SU in its last 6 games versus Texas Tech.

Rick’s Pick: The line in this game settled at -14.5 for Texas Tech, a number that hinges on Baker Mayfield’s status. If he goes, which seems unlikely at this point, it’s an easy cover. If Davis Web starts, who knows? Outside of that pretty game-winning TD he threw against TCU, he’s a mystery. And a freshman.  The total is set at 56 and the over seems to be the better play right now.

 Follow me on Twitter @SCPRick

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