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Baylor Bears vs. Iowa State Cyclones Free Pick 10/19/13

Iowa State Cyclones (1-4) at Baylor Bears (5-0)

NCAAF Football: Saturday, October 19, 2013 at 7:00 pm (Floyd Casey Stadium)

The Line: Baylor Bears -33.5 -- Over/Under: 75.5 See the Latest Odds


Storyline: The Bears finally faced a solid team Saturday in Kansas State and for the first time this season they didn’t blow up the scoreboard. They did, however, weather the storm for a 35-25 victory, contrary to what detractors predicted might happen once the meat of the Baylor schedule started presenting itself. Iowa State, meanwhile, continue nipping at the heels of the Big 12 powers that be, giving Texas Tech a scare Saturday in a 42-35 thriller after nearly knocking off Texas the week before.

The Breakdown: Art Briles and company may have taken a small step towards toning down the critics by holding off a talented K-State team, but it could still take at least until the end of November and dates against Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State before Baylor gets the national respect it might already be due. The Bears put up 446 total yards against K-State with Jr. QB Bryce Petty connecting on 12-of-21 for 332 yards and 3 touchdowns and running backs Jr. Lache Seastrunk and Sr. Glasco Martin combining for 129 yards and 1 touchdown on the ground. The WR duo of Sr. Tevin Reese and Jr. Antwan Goodley once again produced massive numbers, with Reese catching 5 balls for 184 yards and 2 touchdowns and Goodley tallying 4 receptions for 129 yards and a score. Defensively, Baylor conceded 445 total yards, 118 passing and a whopping 327 on the ground, while forcing one turnover and losing the time of possession battle 39:24 to 20:36.

Baylor Bears vs. Iowa State Cyclones Free Pick 10/19/13

Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

Iowa State is left to ponder what might have been for the second straight week now after staying even with a high-powered Texas Tech team for virtually the entire game. The Cyclones cut the Tech lead to 7 on Jr. QB Sam B. Richardson’s 16-yard TD pass to Jr. TE E.J. Bibbs with under two minutes left, but Iowa State was unable to recover the ensuing onsides kick and the Red Raiders ran out the clock for the win. The Cyclones put up 311 total yards with Richardson hitting on 15-of-38 for 168 yards and a score and Jr. RB Aaron Wimberly carrying 19 times for 65 yards and a touchdown. Defensively, Iowa State surrendered a whopping 666 total yards, 415 passing and 251 rushing, and forced three Texas Tech turnovers.

Betting Trends: Baylor is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games, 6-1 SU in its last 7 games, 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home games, 5-0 SU in its last 5 home games, 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games against Iowa State, 4-1 ATS in its last 5 home games against Iowa State, the total has gone over in 6 of Baylor’s last 7 home games, and the total has gone under in 4 of Baylor’s last 5 home games against Iowa State. Iowa State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games, 8-3 ATS in its last 11 road games, 2-4 SU in its last 6 road games, 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games against Baylor, 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road against Baylor, the total has gone over in 4 of Iowa State’s last 6 games, and the total has gone under in 4 of Iowa State’s last 5 games against Baylor.

Rick’s Pick: The line in this one is set a little high at 33.5 with an equally high 75.5 point total. Iowa State hasn’t exactly stopped anyone defensively, but they were able to do enough offensively in their last two against Texas and Texas Tech to nearly pull off the upsets. They won’t stop Baylor, but this kind of spread is borderline absurd so the over looks to be the play here. 

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