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Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils Free Pick 10/19/13

Duke Blue Devils (4-2) at Virginia Cavaliers (2-4)

NCAAF Football: Saturday, October 19, 2013 at 3:30 pm (Scott Stadium)

The Line: Virginia Cavaliers -2.5 -- Over/Under: 51.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: Gameplan/ESPN3

The Duke Blue Devils head up to Virginia to play the Cavaliers on Saturday.

Duke improved to 4-2 on the season after blowing out Navy at home 35-7 on Saturday. Duke beat NC Central and Memphis to start the year, then lost to Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh before winning at home against Troy and Navy. In the game against Navy, the Blue Devils produced an outstanding 435 yards of offense. QB Anthony Boone completed 31 of 38 passes for 295 yards and 3 touchdowns. Boone, who was out for three games with a broken collarbone, was put back in the starting lineup when his replacement, Brandon Connette, tweaked an ankle and wound up unable to play. WR Jamison Crowder led the team in receiving with 10 catches for 88 yards, while WR Blackeney caught 5 balls for 57 yards and two touchdowns. RB Duncan and RB Snead combined for 16 carries for 80 yards and a touchdown in the win. The Blue Devils defense held Navy to 319 total yards, with only 89 coming thru the air. Navy runs the triple-option attack and produced 230 yards on the ground against Duke. However, the Blue Devils did a good job keeping the Navy offense off the field and forced three turnovers on Saturday. Duke will head out on the road after completing a four game home stand. The Blue Devils have only played one road game this year which resulted in a 28-14 win at Memphis.

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Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils Free Pick 10/19/13

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

The Virginia Cavaliers dropped their third straight game against Maryland this past weekend, losing the contest 27-26. Virginia won their season opener against BYU, lost to Oregon, beat VMI, and then lost to Pittsburgh, Ball State, and Maryland. In the loss to the Terps, Virginia produced a whopping 505 yards on offense and held the ball for almost two-thirds of the ballgame. QB David Watford went 27 of 44 for 263 yards and a score. TE Jake McGee had eight catches for 114 yards for the Cavaliers. RB Kevin Parks ran for 112 yards and a touchdown, and RB Khalek Shepherd contributed 81 yards rushing in the loss. The offense did a great job producing big numbers but it did not translate into points on the scoreboard. The Cavaliers defense allowed 468 yards to Maryland, with only 136 coming on the ground. Virginia did a great job keeping the explosive Maryland offense off the field and forced three turnovers on Saturday. Virginia ranks 72nd in points against, giving up an average of 27.3 points per contest this season. The Cavaliers are an awful 102nd in points scored nationwide, scoring 22.3 points per game. Virginia will head back home for this week’s matchup with Duke; the Cavaliers are 2-2 at home this season.

Duke is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Virginia.

Duke has won four of the last five meetings against Virginia, including a 42-17 win at home last season. These teams are evenly matched on both sides of the ball and this should be a close game all the way down to the final possession. Duke’s Boone will try to duplicate his success from last week, while Virginia’s Watford and Parks will try to establish the run early and often. I think both defenses are good but not great, and turnovers may determine the outcome. I’m going to lean towards the home team to pull one off and get back on track.

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