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Kansas State Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones Pick-Odds-Prediction 11/2/13

Iowa State Cyclones (1-6) at Kansas State Wildcats (3-4)

NCAAF Football: Saturday, November 2, 2013 at 3:30 pm (Snyder Family Stadium)

The Line: Kansas State Wildcats -14.5 -- Over/Under: 58 See the Latest Odds

TV: FOX Sports 1

Storyline: Kansas State earned its first Big 12 win of the season against West Virginia Saturday behind a fourth quarter offensive explosion that saw the Wildcats score three unanswered touchdowns to take the game 35-12. Iowa State, meanwhile, is coming off its fourth straight conference loss, a 58-27 shellacking at the hands of Oklahoma State Saturday in which the Cyclones were outscored 30-7 in the second half.

The Breakdown: K-State reverted to its usual flip-flopping between quarterbacks Jr. Jake Waters and Soph. Daniel Sams this week, a combination that produced 362 total yards and 4 touchdowns just one week after Sams appeared to have won the starting job with his breakout 199-yard, 3 touchdown rushing performance against Baylor. Waters, however, had more touches than Sams this week against the Mountaineers. He finished 10-of-13 for 198 yards and 3 touchdowns and added 55 yards rushing on 10 carries. Sams also saw a good amount of action, connecting on 8-of-8 passing for 93 yards and a touchdown, but was bottled up on the ground, rushing for 16 yards on 14 attempts. Sr. RB John Hubert carried 19 times for 86 yards and a score, while the receiving duo of juniors Tyler Lockett and Curry Sexton posted big numbers with 8 receptions for 111 yards and 3 touchdowns and 6 catches for 112 yards respectively. On the defensive side, the Wildcats surrendered 367 total yards to West Virginia, 264 passing and 103 rushing, while forcing three turnovers and allowing just 4-of-16 third down conversions.

Kansas State Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones Pick-Odds-Prediction 11/2/13

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Now that Iowa State’s lost its fourth conference game, the only thing left to play for is bowl eligibility, which will not only require winning out, it’ll require a miracle with K-State, TCU and Oklahoma making up their next three before winnable dates against Kansas and West Virginia to close out the regular season. Against Ok State, the Cyclones had no standout performances to speak of. Iowa State posted 346 total yards, but conceded 420 total yards, of which a staggering 342 came on the ground, not to mention they conceded a 30-point second-half. The Cyclones did keep Ok State to 3-of-12 third down conversions and forced one turnover, but committed three costly turnovers of their own, two that were returned for touchdowns.

Betting Trends:  Iowa State is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games, 1-8 SU in its last 9 games, 8-4 ATS in its last 12 road games,  4-2 ATS in its last 6 games versus Kansas State, 1-8 SU in its last 9 road games against K-State, the total has gone over in 5 of Iowa State’s last 5 games, and the total has gone over 4 of Iowa State’s last 6 road games  against K-State. Kansas State is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games, 17-7 SU in its last 24 games, 7-2 ATS in its last 9 home games, 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games versus Iowa State, 8-1 SU in its last 9 home games against Iowa State, the total has gone under in 4 of K-State’s last 5 games, and the total has gone over in 4 of K-State’s last 6 home games against Iowa State.

Rick’s Pick: K-State opened up a 14.5 point home favorite in this one with a 58 point total. You have to figure Iowa State is due for their annual upset, which they almost got against Texas, but their offense has taken a dip the last two times out. K-State hasn’t exactly been explosive either lately so backing either team in terms of the spread is probably not as good a play here as the under.

Follow me on Twitter @SCPRick

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