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TCU Horned Frogs vs. West Virginia Mountaineers Pick-Odds-Prediction 11/2/13

West Virginia Mountaineers (3-5) at TCU Horned Frogs (3-5)

NCAAF Football: Saturday, November 2, 2013 at 3:30 pm (Amon Carter Stadium)

The Line: TCU Horned Frogs -14 -- Over/Under: 49 See the Latest Odds


Storyline: Casey Pachall was back in the lineup Saturday against Texas, but TCU’s offensive struggles were no less apparent than they were in the senior quarterback’s absence as the Frogs took a 30-7 beating in a game delayed over three hours by inclement weather. West Virginia, meanwhile, kept things close early against Kansas State Saturday, but then went away in the fourth quarter, surrendering 21 unanswered points for the 35-12 loss.

The Breakdown: If TCU proved anything against Texas, it’s that their recent issues on offense go far beyond who’s under center. In the Horned Frogs three outings previous to the Texas game, Soph. QB Trevone Boykin just wasn’t getting it done. In games against Oklahoma, Kansas and Oklahoma State, Boykin had 1 touchdown pass to 5 interceptions and the additional threat he posed as a runner had all but disappeared in that stretch, making him the easiest of scapegoats. But the notion that Pachall’s return would signal the resurgence of the TCU offense took a hit early against the Longhorns. Pachall finished a less than stellar 13-of-34 for 140 yards and one pick and his stat line was helped along by a series of dropped passes, seven in all, and miscues. A total of 46 yards rushing didn’t help either. The Frogs posted 246 total yards, while surrendering 415 total yards, 228 passing and 187 rushing. TCU also forced two turnovers and held Texas to 4-of-15 third down conversions.

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TCU Horned Frogs vs. West Virginia Mountaineers Pick-Odds-Prediction 11/2/13

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Jr. QB Clint Trickett played well enough against K-State, completing 15-of-28 for 227 yards, but the Mountaineers just couldn’t get on the board much and certainly not enough to negate a porous defense. West Virginia took a 9-7 lead into the half and extended the lead to 12-7 early in the third quarter before the Wildcats found their offense and scored 28 unanswered for the rout. The Mountaineer ground game never got churning and Sr. RB Charles Smith combined with Jr. Dreamius Smith for just 66 yards on 15 carries. Defensively, West Virginia conceded 448 total yards, 291 through the air and 157 rushing, while forcing two turnovers and allowing K-State to convert 8-of13 third down attempts.

Betting Trends: TCU is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games, 3-7 SU in its last 10 games, 1-8 ATS in its last 9 home games, 3-6 SU in its last 9 home games, 18-7 SU in its last 25 home games and the total has gone under in 5 of TCU’s last 6 games. West Virginia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games, 1-4 SU in its last 5 games, 1-4 ATS in its last 5 road games, 0-5 SU in its last 5 road games, the total has gone under in 9 of West Virginia’s last 11 games, and the total has gone under in 5 of West Virginia’s last 6 road games.

Rick’s Pick: The line in this one is currently set at -14 for TCU with a point total of 49, which must be taking into account Casey Pachall at 100%. Pachall didn’t seem all that rusty against Texas, but just like Boykin for much of the season, he wasn’t getting any help from his skill players. WVU is also something of a mystery so rather than risk a shot in the dark, the under looks like the safest play.

Follow me on Twitter @SCPRick

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