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Texas Longhorns vs. Kansas Jayhawks Pick-Odds-Prediction 11/2/13

Kansas Jayhawks (2-5) at Texas Longhorns (5-2)

NCAAF Football: Saturday, November 2, 2013 at 3:30 pm (Darrell K. Royal Texas Memorial Stadium)

The Line: Texas Longhorns -27 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: Longhorns Network

Storyline: Texas won its fourth in a row Saturday for first place in the Big 12 after shutting down TCU 30-7 in a game delayed over three hours due to lightning concerns. Meanwhile, at the other end of the conference spectrum, Kansas lost its fourth consecutive Big 12 matchup and remains deadlocked with Iowa State for last place.

The Breakdown: The Longhorns got a complete effort from both sides of the ball, compiling 415 total yards while stifling TCU to just 246 total yards, 201 through the air and a meager 46 on the ground. Texas broke the game open in the second quarter on a 65-yard touchdown pass from Sr. QB Case McCoy to Soph. WR Marcus Johnson and took a 20-7 lead into the half that they would never relinquish. McCoy made his fourth start in place of Jr. David Ash, who continues to suffer from lingering concussion symptoms, and connected on 9-of-19 for 228 yards and one touchdown with 2 interceptions. Johnson led all receivers with 3 catches for 120 yards and the one score. Soph. RB Johnathan Gray paced a strong Texas outing on the ground with 94 yards on 22 carries and Jr. Malcolm Brown added 51 yards and two touchdowns on 17 attempts. Defensively, the Horns stuffed the TCU running game and soured the return of Sr. TCU quarterback Casey Pachall, who sat out five games since going down with a broken arm against Southeastern Louisiana in week two. Pachall finished 13-of-34 for 139 yards and one pick. Texas also forced three TCU turnovers and kept the Horned Frogs to 4-of-16 third down conversions.

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Texas Longhorns vs. Kansas Jayhawks Pick-Odds-Prediction 11/2/13

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Well, at least Kansas kept Baylor under 70 points, something only one other conference foe has been able to do thus far. Outside of that, it was unfortunately standard fare for the Jayhawks. Jr. QB Jake Heap finished a consistently dismal 7-of-19 for 85 yards and 1 touchdown while splitting time with Fresh. Montell Cozart, who went 4-of-14 for 69 yards. Sr. RB James Sims carried 19 times for 70 yards and Jr. WR Rodriguez Coleman caught 2 balls for 75 yards and a score. Defensively, Kansas surrendered a whopping 743 yards to the Bears, 437 passing and 306 rushing and forced two Baylor turnovers.  

Betting Trends: Texas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games, 4-1 ATS in its last 5 home games, 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games against Kansas, 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home games versus Kansas, and 5-0 SU in its last 5 home games against Kansas. Kansas is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games, 2-16 SU in its last 18 games, 5-17 ATS in its last 22 road games, 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games against Texas, 0-5 ATS in its last 5 road games against Texas, and 0-5 SU in its last 5 games against Texas.

Rick’s Pick: The line in this one is currently set at -27 for Texas. Couple things to consider: Kansas did just get blown out by Baylor, who ended up just covering the massive 35-point spread and 72.5 over by half a point. Previous to that, they lost to Oklahoma by 15 and TCU by 10. And previous to that, Texas Tech blew them out by 38. That’s a 50/50 split against the spread in conference, but given that Kansas has been outscored 174-66 in those 4 games for an average of 43.5-16.5, the 27 point spread is right on the money. Look for a Horns cover.

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