Iowa State Cyclones vs. TCU Horned Frogs Pick-Odds-Prediction 11/9/13
TCU Horned Frogs (3-6) at Iowa State Cyclones (1-7)
NCAAF Football: Saturday, November 9, 2013 at 12:00 pm (Jack Trice Stadium)
The Line: Iowa State Cyclones +7.5 -- Over/Under: 49.5 See the Latest Odds
Storyline: Casey Pachall had the kind of game Saturday against West Virginia that many expected would be the norm this season before the senior QB went out with an injury in week two. The result, however, a 30-27 overtime loss to West Virginia, marks TCU’s third conference loss in a row and its fifth overall for the kind of Big 12 sophomore slump that surely no one envisioned. Meanwhile, Iowa State is reeling to an even higher degree after dropping its fifth straight conference game 41-7 to Kansas State Saturday, leaving the Cyclones in a battle with Kansas for the bottom of the Big 12 standings.
The Breakdown: Pachall went off against WVU for his biggest game of the season, connecting on 40-of-58 for 394 yards and 3 TD’s, but threw 2 picks. Backup Soph. QB Trevone Boykin stepped in for Jr. WR Brandon Carter, who was out this week with a personal issue, and played the position like he’d been there all season long, catching 11 balls for 100 yards, while Soph. WR Josh Doctson added 8 catches for 92 yards and a touchdown. For the third straight week, the Horned Frogs failed to find any semblance of a running game and mustered just 60 total yards. Defensively, TCU conceded 450 total yards to the Mountaineers, 267 passing and 148 rushing, while forcing 2 turnovers and allowing WVU to convert 5of-15 third downs.
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For Iowa State, things just keep going farther south. It certainly didn’t help that the Cyclones were without Jr. RB Aaron Wimberly, who was out with a hamstring injury, but Iowa State was just unable to get anything off the ground against Kansas State. They were outgained in total yards 448-249 and Fresh. QB Grant Rohach took over for Sam Richardson, who left the game in the second quarter with an ankle injury, and went 11-of-24 for 88 yards and two interceptions. Iowa State failed to reach plus territory the entire game and if not for a late K-State fumble inside its own 20, the Cyclones would have been shutout. Iowa State managed to break the drought on 10 yard TD run from Soph. RB DeVondrick Nealy at the 3:24 mark of the fourth quarter.
Betting Trends: TCU is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games, 1-4 SU in its last 5 games, 19-6 SU in its last 25 road games, the total has gone under in 4 of TCU’s last 5 games, and the total has gone under in 5 of TCU’s last 5 road games. Iowa State is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games, 0-5 SU in its last 5 games, 1-5 ATS in its last 6 home games, 0-5 SU in its last 5 home games, the total has gone over in 6 of Iowa State’s last 7 games, and the total has gone over in 4 of Iowa State’s last 6 home games.
Rick’s Pick: The line in this one is currently set at -7.5 for TCU with a 49.5 point total, a confusing spread at first glance. Sam Richardson’s status is still uncertain for Saturday, but Aaron Wimberly, Iowa State’s leading rusher and biggest home run threat, is scheduled to be back in action. That should elevate the Cyclone offense a tiny bit, but even more important here is the fact that Casey Pachall is back and time’s running out for him to shine for NFL scouts. And considering TCU’s running game has all but disappeared, expect Pachall to put the ball up 40-50 times easy. TCU covers.
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