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North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Virginia Cavaliers Pick-Odds-Predicition 11/9/13

Virginia Cavaliers (2-7) at North Carolina Tar Heels (3-5)

NCAAF Football: Saturday, November 9, 2013 at 12:30 pm (Kenan Stadium)

The Line: North Carolina Tar Heels -14 -- Over/Under: 52.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: Gameplan/ESPN3

The Virginia Cavaliers travel to North Carolina to play the Tar Heels on Saturday afternoon.

Virginia is 2-7 overall, 0-5 ACC, after losing to Clemson 59-10 at home last weekend. The Cavaliers started the season at 2-1 but have now lost six straight games, five of which have been in conference play. This was also the second 59-10 loss at home this season, having lost by the same scored against Oregon in the second week of the season. Against Clemson, Virginia gained only 277 total yards on offense and turned the ball over 3 times. QB Watford completed 16 of 25 passes for 130 yards with one interception. RB Parks rushed 16 times for 82 yards, while WR Johnson caught 5 balls for 77 yards. The Cavaliers rank an awful 104th in points scored, averaging just over 21 points a game this season. The Cavaliers defense allowed over 600 yards to the Clemson Tigers last weekend. Virginia’s weak secondary allowed Clemson’s QB Tajh Boyd to throw for over 370 yards in the game. The Virginia defense has not played great this season, ranking 100th in points allowed, giving up over 32 points per game this year. This will be only the third road game for Virginia this season; the Cavaliers lost at Pittsburgh and Maryland earlier this year.

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North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Virginia Cavaliers Pick-Odds-Predicition 11/9/13

Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

The North Carolina Tar Heels improved to 3-5 on the year, 2-3 in the ACC, after beating in-state rival NC State 27-19 on Saturday. The Tar Heels had lost four straight games before beating Boston College and now NC State to get things back on track. Against the Wolfpack, the Tar Heels gained 427 yards, but committed 80 yards of penalties and turned the ball over once. QB Renner completed 15 of 22 passes for 124 yards and one interception. RB Williams rushed 17 times for 51 yards, while TE Ebron caught 9 balls for 70 yards for the Tar Heels. North Carolina ranks 86th in points scored this season, averaging just over 25 points per game. The Tar Heels allowed 388 total yards against NC State, but forced two turnovers in the win. North Carolina did a great job getting off the field on third down and forced the Wolfpack into kicking field goals. The Tar Heels defense ranks 65th in points allowed, allowing less than 27 points per game this season. North Carolina will head back home for this week’s game; the Tar Heels are 2-2 this season at Kenan Stadium.

The over is 5-0 in Virginia’s last 5 games overall. The under is 5-0 in North Carolina’s last 5 conference games. The Cavaliers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings.

North Carolina has won the last three meetings against Virginia, including a 24 point win at Virginia last year. These two teams are headed in two different directions right now and I think North Carolina is the better team in this matchup. Virginia lacks depth on both sides of the ball and they have do not have enough playmakers to compete with the elite teams in the ACC. North Carolina is not an elite team, but they have enough playmakers to get the win against Virginia at home. Renner and Ebron should shred the Virginia secondary and help the Tar Heels win by 20.

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