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West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Texas Longhorns Pick-Odds-Prediction 11/9/13

Texas Longhorns (6-2) at West Virginia Mountaineers (4-5)

NCAAF Football: Saturday, November 9, 2013 at 7:00 pm (Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium)

The Line: West Virginia Mountaineers +7.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds


Storyline: The Longhorns have quietly put their two-game skid and all the Mack Brown to-do in the rear view now with their fifth straight conference victory over Kansas Saturday 35-13. Meanwhile, West Virginia snapped a three-game losing streak with its 30-27 overtime win at TCU Saturday, finally pulling out a game late after second half meltdowns in its last two outings against Kansas State and Texas Tech.

The Breakdown: Texas didn’t overwhelm Kansas as many Big 12 foes have this season, but they didn’t need to. The Jayhawks had nothing on either side of the ball that could hurt the Longhorns and they did more than enough, even without their best stuff, to cruise to the win and move to 5-0 in the Big 12. The Horns posted 418 total yards, 197 passing and 221 rushing. Sr. QB Case McCoy, making his fifth start in place of an injured David Ash, went 20-of-29 for 196 yards, Jr. RB Malcolm Brown carried 20 times for 119 yards and 4 touchdowns and Jr. WR Jaxon Shipley caught 6 balls for 77 yards. On the defensive side, Texas surrendered 306 total yards, 166 passing and 140 rushing, while forcing one turnover and keeping Kansas to 4-of-14 third down conversions. The Horns now sit in a tie for first place in the Big 12 with Baylor.

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West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Texas Longhorns Pick-Odds-Prediction 11/9/13

Brendan Maloney-USA TODAY Sports

For the third straight week against TCU, the Mountaineers squandered a second-half lead and looked to be on their way to falling victim once again after surrendering leads late in losses to Kansas State and Texas Tech the past two weeks. After losing a 10-point fourth quarter lead against TCU, West Virginia took the game back in overtime when TCU kicker Jaden Oberkrom missed a 62-yard attempt and the Mountaineers made good on the ensuing possession with a 34-yard field goal from Josh Lambert for the win. West Virginia totaled 415 yards of offense with Jr. QB Clint Trickett hitting on 25-of-41 for 267 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, Sr. RB Charles Sims rushing for a season-high 154 yards and a score on 24 carries, and Fr. WR Daikiel Shorts catching 6 balls for 98 yards.  On the defensive side, the Mountaineers surrendered 454 total yards to the Horned Frogs, 394 passing and 60 rushing, while forcing 4 turnovers and holding TCU to 6-of-15 third down conversions.

Betting Trends: Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games, 2-5 ATS in its last 7 road games, 17-8 SU in its last 25 road games, the total has gone under in 4 of Texas’s last 5 games, and the total has gone over in 7 of Texas’s last 10 road games. West Virginia is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games, 2-4 SU in its last 6 games, 3-7 ATS  in its last 10 home games, 4-1 SU in its last 5 home games, the total has gone under in 9 of West Virginia’s last 12 games, and the total as gone under in 4 of West Virginia’s last 5 home games.

Rick’s Pick: The Line in this one is currently set at -7 for Texas with a point total yet to be posted. The Longhorns have been steady on the ground, mixing it up nicely between RB’s Johnathan Gray and Malcolm Brown for an average of 201.8 yards a game during their 5-game win streak, giving Case McCoy the breathing room to not have to win games through the air. Things might be headed in an entirely different direction if McCoy needed to do more. West Virginia, conversely, has been anything but consistent, enveloping wins with losses the entire season until their three-game skid. The Horns simply have more talent on both sides, not to mention stability. Look for a Texas cover.

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