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Baylor Bears vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Pick-Odds-Prediction 11/16/13

Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-3) at Baylor Bears (8-0)

NCAAF Football: Saturday, November 16, 2013 at 7:00 pm (Floyd Casey Stadium)

The Line: Baylor Bears -27.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds


Storyline: The Bears faced their first test of the season against Oklahoma Saturday and not only aced it with a 41-12 rout, they picked up some much-needed national respect in the process. Texas Tech, meanwhile, dropped out of the Top 25 this week after losing its third straight to Kansas State Saturday in a game that was much more one-sided than the 49-26 final score.

The Breakdown: The end result against OU looked like pretty standard stuff, another Baylor blowout with stat lines indicative of another lop-sided affair. But until midway through the second quarter, it seemed the pundits were right. The Bears hadn’t faced a defense rife with athletes like Oklahoma’s in their seven straight wins and the home runs that had been there all season were never allowed to take shape. Making matters worse, injuries to three offensive standouts, RBs Lache Seastrunk and Glasco Martin, as well as WR Tevin Reese, put the Bears in unfamiliar territory and the top-ranked Baylor offense struggled to get off the ground. But it was the Baylor defense that rose to the occasion against the Sooners, holding the top 25 OU ground game to a paltry 87 yards and QB Blake Bell to 15-of-35 for 150 yards passing, while forcing two turnovers and keeping Oklahoma to 4-of-17 third down conversions. Offensively, Jr. QB Bryce Petty struggled to his lowest output of the season, connecting on 13-of-26 for 204 yards and 3 TDs and added 45 yards and two touchdowns rushing, while Fresh. RB Shock Linwood shined in place of Seastrunk and Martin, carrying 23 times for 182 yards. The Bears now sit in a tie with Texas for first place in the Big 12, but as far as the BCS picture, there’s still a ways to go. Baylor is currently ranked fifth behind Stanford, Ohio State, Florida State and Alabama and still has a bit of gauntlet to get through with games against Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU and Texas left on the slate.

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Baylor Bears vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Pick-Odds-Prediction 11/16/13

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

The Red Raiders had no answers for the Kansas State running game and surrendered a whopping 291 yards, while doing next to nothing, as usual, with its own ground game. Tech allowed just 76 yards passing, but Sr. K-State RB John Hubert carried 23 times for 157 yards and a score and Soph. QB Daniel Sams added 81 yards and 2 TDs on 11 attempts. Offensively, Fresh QB Baker Mayfield saw a return to action after sitting out 4 games with a knee injury and produced lukewarm results, going 34-of-44 for 276 yards and 2 INTs after replacing Fresh Davis Webb. Webb finished 13-of-20 for 78 yards and a score before he was yanked in the second quarter. Sr. WR Eric Ward put up big numbers with 11 catches for 107 yards and a score and Sop. WR Jakeem Grant caught 9 balls for 73 yards. Jr. TE Jace Amaro, the Big 12 leader in receptions, saw his streak of games with at least 8 catches extended. He finished with 9 catches for 67 yards.

Betting Trends: Baylor is 13-1 ATS in its last 14 games, 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home games, 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games against Texas Tech, 2-6 ATS in its last 8 home games against Texas Tech, the total has gone over in 6 of Baylor’s last 8 games, and the total has gone over in 5 of Baylor’s last 6 home games. Texas Tech is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games, 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games against Baylor, 6-2 ATS in its last 8 road games against Baylor, and the total has gone over in 5 of Tech’s last 5 road games.

Rick’s Pick: The line in this one is currently set at -27 for Baylor with a point total yet to be posted and that might be a bit much of a spread, regardless of Tech’s on again, off again QB struggles. Tech comes in with the #1 raked passing offense at 408.2 yards per game, while Baylor now ranks 3rd at 390.6. Looks like a shootout, but without an over/under, 4 TDs is too much to lay down here. I’ll update once it’s released.

 Follow me on Twitter @SCPRick

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