Kansas State Wildcats vs. TCU Horned Frogs Pick-Odds-Prediction 11/16/13
TCU Horned Frogs (4-6) at Kansas State Wildcats (5-4)
NCAAF Football: Saturday, November 16, 2013 at 3:30 pm (Snyder Family Stadium)
The Line: Kansas State Wildcats -10.5 -- Over/Under: 47 See the Latest Odds
Storyline: Kansas State has quietly turned its season around after a 2-4 start, recording its most impressive win thus far in a 49-26 rout of Texas Tech Saturday. TCU, meanwhile, continues to crawl out of the Big 12 basement, getting its third conference win of the season with a 21-17 win over slumping Iowa State.
The Breakdown: K-State’s seasoning opening loss to FCS North Dakota State and subsequent 0-3 conference start seemed to signal the end of the Wildcat’s season by the midway point. But K-State has rallied to win its last three and now needs just one more win in its next three to become bowl eligible. The Wildcats took out a powerful Texas Tech team in dominating fashion behind 21 unanswered points in the second quarter, building a 35-10 lead by the half that it would never relinquish. K-State posted just 76 yards passing, but dominated on the ground behind 291 rushing yards. Sr. RB John Hubert rushed for 157 yards and 1 TD and Soph. QB Daniel Sams added 81 yards and 2 TDs on 11 carries. Jr. QB Jake Waters passed for 65 yards and 1 TD and rushed for 38 yards and 2 TDs. Defensively, the Wildcats surrendered 459 total yards, 354 passing and 105 rushing, while forcing three turnovers and keeping the Red Raiders to 9-of-17 on third down conversions.
Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports
TCU needed a late surge to get past Iowa State and distance itself from the bottom of the conference, but now sits two wins away from the postseason with two games left on its schedule. The bad news is that those games are against two teams that may be playing the best ball in the conference right now in K-State and Baylor. Against the Cyclones, TCU took a 14-7 lead into the half, but couldn’t find the end zone again until Soph. QB Trevone Boykin scored the game-winner on a 1-yard keeper with 38 seconds left in regulation. Sr. QB Casey Pachall connected on 20-of-36 for 245 yards and 2 INTs. In the absence of leading running backs Soph. B.J. Catalon and Sr. Waymon James who were out with injuries, Soph. Aaron Green rushed for 72 yards on 19 carries. Jr. WR Brandon Carter had a strong outing with 6 catches for 93 yards. Defensively, the Horned Frogs conceded just 283 total yards, 173 passing and 110 rushing, while forcing two turnovers and holding Iowa State to just 7-of-20 third down conversions.
Betting Trends: K-State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games, 4-1 ATS in its last 5 home games, 13-2 SU in its last 15 home games, the total has gone under in 5 of K-State’s last 7 games, and the total has gone under in 5 of K-State’s last 6 home games. TCU is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games, 1-4 ATS in its last 5 road games, 19-6 SU in its last 25 road games, the total has gone under in 5 of TCU’s last 6 games, and the total has gone under in 5 of TCU’s last 5 road games.
Rick’s Pick: The line in this one settled at -10.5 for K-State with a 47 point total. Despite the return of Casey Pachall, the Horned Frogs are still floundering offensively, needing the entire four frames to get by lowly Iowa State. On the flipside, K-State’s revolving QBs is getting it done and that’ll continue here.
Follow me on Twitter @SCPRick