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Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Pick-Odds-Prediction 11/16/13

Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-1) at Texas Longhorns (7-2)

NCAAF Football: Saturday, November 16, 2013 at 3:33 pm (Memorial Stadium)

The Line: Texas Longhorns +3 -- Over/Under: 64 See the Latest Odds


Storyline: Oklahoma State was on auto-pilot in a 42-6 pasting of lowly Kansas Saturday, but now must run the gauntlet over the next three games in what amounts to a four team conference playoff with Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma. Texas, meanwhile, survived a 47-40 overtime thriller with West Virginia Saturday to move to 6-0 in the Big 12, solidifying its first place conference standing with just three games left on the slate.

The Breakdown: The Cowboys must still be wondering how they lost to West Virginia back in September. If they hadn’t, Ok State would likely be in the top 5 along with Baylor and vying for a national title shot. The Cowboys still have an outside shot at the conference title if they win out, though, as anticlimactic as that must be for a team that at the start of the season was the odds on favorite to win the Big 12 and secure a spot in a BCS game. Against Kansas, it was business as usual with Sr. QB Clint Chelf connecting on 19-of-37 for 265 yards and 3 TDs and, in the absence of leading receiver Jr. Josh Stewart who went out with an injury less than three minutes into the game, Sr. WR Tracy Moore and Soph. WR David Glidden combined for 12 receptions for 150 yards and 2 TDs. Defensively, Ok State conceded 316 total yards to the Jayhawks, 114 passing and 202 rushing, while forcing one turnover and holding Kansas to just 5-of-20 third down conversions.

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Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Pick-Odds-Prediction 11/16/13

Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

Texas is a long way from 1-2 when way back in September it looked like Mack Brown might not even get to finish out the season. Now the Longhorns sit atop the conference standings in control of their own destiny. Win out and the two-game skid will be dwarfed by a Big 12 title that seemed like an impossibility after the Ole Miss loss. Texas is about to have its hands full, though, beginning with an Oklahoma State team far removed from the hiccup at West Virginia. The Longhorns got a real scare against the Mountaineers, despite controlling the game in the second half and managed to send the game into OT on a 24-yard Anthony Fera field goal with 13 seconds left in regulation. Sr. QB Case Mc Coy then found Soph. FB Alex De La Torre with a 2-yard TD pass in OT, which ultimately won the game when the Mountaineers failed to score on their next possession. McCoy finished 27-of-49 for 283 yards and 3 TDs, Jr. RB Malcolm Brown for 89 yards and a score on 28 carries, and Sr. WR Mike Davis caught 3 balls for 91 yards and a TD. Defensively, the Horns surrendered 399 total yards, while forcing five turnovers and holding WVU to 7-of-18 third down conversions.

Betting Trends: Ok State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games, 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games, 4-2 ATS in its last 6 road games against Texas, and the total has gone under in 4 of Ok State’s last 6 road games against Texas. Texas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games, 4-2 ATS in its last 6 home games, 2-4 ATS in its last 6 home games against Ok State, and the total has gone under in 4 of Texas’s last 6 home games against Ok State.

Rick’s Pick: The line in this one is currently set at +3 for Texas with a 64 point total. It’s hard not to believe that Ok State has found its groove with Chelf behind center. Against Texas Tech, their stiffest test of the season, they lived up to their preseason billing. The Longhorns have looked strong the past six weeks and continue to roll behind balanced play, but now comes the meat of the schedule and some real offense. Look for Ok State to cover.

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