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Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Baylor Bears Pick-Odds-Prediction 11/23/13

Baylor Bears (9-0) at Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-1)

College Football: Saturday, November 23, 2013 at 8:00 pm (Boone Pickens Stadium)

The Line: Oklahoma State Cowboys +9 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds


Storyline: For a little over two quarters Saturday against Texas Tech, it seemed Baylor had finally met its offensive match and faced its first double-digit deficit of the season before pulling away in the third quarter for a 63-34 victory that wasn’t quite as comfortable as the final score. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, put in another machine-like performance Saturday in a commanding 38-13 win over Texas en route to a top 10 ranking.

The Breakdown: It was a game framed by Big 12 offense and none had been more prolific this season than Baylor and Texas Tech. But while the Bears seemed hampered by the loss of several key offensive players at the start of the game, freshman Tech QB Baker Mayfield and the nation’s top-ranked passing offense came out of the gate primed for the upset. The Red Raiders jumped out to a 14-0 lead before Baylor got on the board at the 6:05 mark of the first quarter behind a 40-yard TD pass from Jr. Bryce Petty to WR Levi Norwood. The offensive ebb and flow continued at a furious pace until Petty hit Jr. WR Antwan Goodley on a 31-yard TD pass with 4 seconds left in the first quarter and the Bears never trailed again. Petty passed for 335 yards and 3 TDs and ran for two more scores, and the Baylor ground game, without standout running backs Lache Seastrunk and Glasco Martin, posted a stellar 340 yards rushing with two freshman RB’s. Shock Linwood rushed for 187 yards and a TD on 29 carries, while Devin Chafin added 100 yards and two TDs on 11 attempts. Junior WRs Levi Norwood and Antwan Goodley both had big outings with 7 catches for 156 yards and 2 TDs and 4 catches for 101 yards and 1 TD respectively. Baylor now sits in fourth place in the BCS rankings behind Alabama, Florida State and Ohio State, but the Bears have a tougher remaining schedule and are likely to leapfrog the Buckeyes with a victory over 10th-ranked Ok State this week.

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Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Baylor Bears Pick-Odds-Prediction 11/23/13

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Ok State’s standing also lends itself to a possible leapfrog situation with a win over Baylor. The Cowboys loss to West Virginia was a bad one, but they’ve impressed in their six straight wins since, crushing Texas Tech and handing Texas its first Big 12 loss of the season. Ok State now sits 10th in the BCS at .589 and likely to supplant 9th-ranked Stanford at .624 and possibly even 8th-ranked Missouri at .723 if it can survive the Bears. The Cowboys never trailed against Texas and once again rode a balanced offense, 197 passing yards and 183 rushing, to a convincing win. Sr. QB Clint Chelf threw for two TDs and ran for two more, finishing 16-of-22 for 197 yards, and paced Ok State on the ground with 10 carries for 95 yards. Sr. WR Charlie Moore led the Cowboys with 6 catches for 83 yards and 1 TD. Defensively, Ok State surrendered 389 total yards to the Horns, 238 passing and 151 rushing, while forcing 3 turnovers and conceding 10-of-19 third down conversions.

Betting Trends: Baylor is 14-1 ATS in its last 15 games, 5-2 ATS in its last 7 road games, 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games against Ok State, the total has gone under in 4 of Baylor’s last 6 games against Ok State and the total has gone over in 5 of Baylor’s last 6 road games against Ok State. Oklahoma State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games, 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games, 6-1 ATS in its last 7 against Baylor, 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home games against Baylor and the total has gone over in 5 of Ok State’s last 6 home games against Baylor.

Rick’s Pick: The line is currently set at +9 for Ok State with no point total posted as of yet. With just Texas left on the slate after this one, the Cowboys not only represent Baylor’s biggest road block, but probably its last as well. Against Oklahoma and Texas Tech, its two toughest opponents to date, the vaunted Baylor offense took a second to get off the ground, but couldn’t be stopped when it finally did. This is essentially for all the marbles, Big 12 and possibly even BCS. In the biggest game in Baylor history, look for the Bears to cover.

Follow me on Twitter @SCPRick

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