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Texas Longhorns vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Pick-Odds-Predictioin 11/28/13

Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-4) at Texas Longhorns (7-3)

College Football: Thursday, November 28, 2013 at 7:30 pm (Darrell K. Royal Texas Memorial Stadium)

The Line: Texas Longhorns -4.5 -- Over/Under: 66.6 See the Latest Odds

TV: FOX Sports 1

Storyline: The Texas Tech Red Raiders hook up with the Texas Longhorns Thursday in a rivalry game between two teams that just a short while ago sat atop the Big 12 standings. Now, both are just lucky to be going bowling. You can rest assured, though, each side will be just as fired up for this annual interstate clash as if there were more at stake than just bragging rights.

The Breakdown: Tech was idle this week and suffered a 63-34 romp at the hands of then #5 Baylor the last time they suited up. Freshman QB Baker Mayfield and the Red Raiders came storming out of the gate to take a 14-0 lead before Baylor got on the board at the 6:05 mark of the first quarter. The scoring continued at a torrid pace and the Bears took a 35-27 lead into the half that they would never relinquish. Mayfield finished strong, connecting on 28-of-51 for 314 yards, 4 TDs and 1 interception, but the Red Raiders just couldn’t keep pace with the highly-caffeinated Baylor offense. Tech added 138 rushing yards to go with 320 passing for 458 total yards, but surrendered a whopping 675 total yards, 335 passing and 340 rushing and committed 3 turnovers.

Texas Longhorns vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Pick-Odds-Predictioin 11/28/13

Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

The Longhorns were also off last week and were also walloped 38-13 by Oklahoma State the last time they took the field. Midway through the second quarter, the Cowboys started to pull away and built a 28-10 lead on two unanswered passing touchdowns from Clint Chelf to Tracy Moore and Justin Gilbert. The Longhorns did closely match Ok State in total yards, outgaining them 389-380, but could produce little in the way of scoring with senior QB Case McCoy unable to find the end zone on 26-of-39 for 221 yards and 3 interceptions and junior RB Malcolm Brown combining with junior RB Joe Bergeron for 122 yards and 1 TD. Senior WR Mike Davis did have a big day, though, finishing with 9 receptions for 112 yards. Defensively, the Horns forced one turnover and allowed Ok State to convert 5-of-13 third downs.

Betting Trends: Texas Tech is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games, 1-4 SU in its last 5 games, 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games against Texas, 1-9 SU in its last 10 games against Texas, 2-5 ATS in its last 7 road games versus Texas, 0-5 SU in its last 5 road games against Texas, the total has gone over in 5 of Tech's last 5 games, and the total has gone over in 4 of Tech's last  5 road games agaisnt Texas. Texas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games, 5-2 SU in its last 7 home games, 4-2 ATS in its last 6 versus Texas Tech, 5-2 ATS in its last 7 home games against Tech, the total has gone under in 4 of Texas's last 5 home games and the total has gone over in 4 of Texas's last 5 home games against Tech.

Rick's Pick: The line in this one currently has the Longhorns a 4.5 home favorite with a 66.5 point total. This is a rivalry game and with high emotion comes unpredictability, particularly with two capable offenses. That said, the over looks like the safer play at the moment.

Folllow me on Twitter @SCPRick


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