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Kansas Jayhawks vs. Kansas State Wildcats Pick-Odds-Prediction 11/30/13

Kansas State Wildcats (6-5) at Kansas Jayhawks (3-8)

College Football: Saturday, November 30, 2013 at 12:00 pm (Memorial Stadium)

The Line: Kansas Jayhawks +16.5 -- Over/Under: 52 See the Latest Odds

TV: FOX Sports 1

Storyline: The Wildcats have already locked down a bowl bid by virtue of their win over TCU a couple weeks ago, but got steamrolled by the Oklahoma ground game in a 41-31 loss Saturday. Kansas, meanwhile, got pasted 34-0 by Iowa State Saturday in the battle of the Big 12 basement.

The Breakdown: K-State hung tough with the Sooners for much of the game, but it was a day in which each team deviated very little from what was working. For Oklahoma, it was their 16th-ranked rushing attack that kept them one step ahead of the Wildcats for virtually the entire game. And K-State decided that the thing to do was throw caution to the wind and put the ball in the air more than it had all season. The end result was a back and forth affair with career outings for senior OU RB Brennan Clay, who rushed for 200 yards and 2 TDs and junior K-State WR Tyler Lockett, who set a school record with 12 catches for 278 yards and 3 TDs and finished with a school record 440 yards of total offense. The Wildcats abandoned the rotating QB play that they’d relied on for much of the season and sophomore Daniel Sams barely saw the field with just 3 carries for 7 yards. K-State also passed up giving the ball to senior RB John Hubert who carried 9 times for just 17 yards, which left things in the hands of junior QB Jake Waters, who had a season-high 348 yards and 3 TDs on 17-of-29 passing.

Kansas Jayhawks vs. Kansas State Wildcats Pick-Odds-Prediction 11/30/13

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

With the loss to Iowa State, the Jayhawks have all but assured themselves a last place Big 12 finish, or at least a tie with Iowa State for the dubious honor. If Kansas can somehow top K-State and Iowa State loses to West Virginia, they’ll finish with two conference wins to Iowa State’s one. If the Jayhawks lose to K-State and Iowa State beats West Virginia, Kansas will be in sole possession of last place. If the Jayhawks and Cyclones both lose, we’re right back where we started and both will finish in a tie for dead last. Any questions? Once again, though, there’s not much good to say about a Kansas team that got shutout by one of the worst defenses in the FBS, ranking 107th nationally. Freshman QB Montel Cozart started the game and went just 4-of-12 for 20 yards and one pick before being yanked in favor of junior Todd Heaps, who wasn’t much better and finished 7-of-19 for 72 yards. Senior RB James Sims was, per usual, the lone bright spot, carrying 21 times for 114 yards. Defensively, the Jayhawks surrendered 502 total yards and a career outing to freshman QB Grant Rohach, who connected on 15-of-20 for 300 yards and 2 TDs.

Betting Trends: Kansas State is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games, 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games against Kansas, 1-4 SU in its last 5 road games, 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games against Kansas, 6-3 ATS in its last 9 road games against Kansas, the total has gone over in 4 of K-State's last 5 games against Kansas and the total has gone over in 5 of K-State's last 5 road games versus Kansas. Kansas is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games, 2-5 ATS in its last 7 home games, 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games against K-State, 3-6 ATS in its last 9 home games against K-State, the total has gone over in 4 of Kansas's last 5 games against K-State and the total has gone over in 5 of Kansas's last 5 home games versus K-State. 

Rick’s Pick: The line in this one is set at -16 for Kansas State and it’s hard to imagine them not covering here. The Jayhawks were someone else in the win against West Virginia and actually produced some offense. But as satisfying as it was to see Kansas resemble a real team, it was little more than a reminder that flukey things can happen in the Big 12. K-State covers.

Follow me on Twitter@SCPRick

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