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Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Oklahoma Sooners Pick-Odds-Prediction 12/7/13

Oklahoma Sooners (9-2) at Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-1)

College Football: Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 12:00 pm (Boone Pickens Stadium)

The Line: Oklahoma State Cowboys -11 -- Over/Under: 58 See the Latest Odds


Storyline: As the BCS era draws to a close, it’s only fitting that it ends shrouded in controversy just like every other season in recent memory. And where does a one loss Oklahoma State team figure in all this? They don’t, really. Even if Ok State wins Bedlam over Oklahoma and Ohio State and Florida State both lose their respective conference chamionship games, that dreaded one-loss SEC team is better than all the rest scenario will take center stage. That means we could have two one-loss SEC teams vying for the National Championship. Then all we can do is breathe a collective sigh of relief that this god-awful mess we call the Bowl Championship Series is finally history. So what’s really at stake in this game, besides a Big 12 title for the Cowboys, is what’s always at stake: Bedlam bragging rights. This will be the 108th edition of the Bedlam series, of which the Sooners have lost just 17. And of those, Mike Gundy has just one.

The Breakdown: Ok State was off last week, but we all remember what happened the last time they took the field. They not only dominated Baylor, they smashed them in the face with a shovel. It was the kind of performance that makes you wonder how in the world the Cowboys lost to a West Virginia team that, after this season, looks out of place in the Big 12. Whether or not the stumble was a momentary lapse, though, is immaterial now. Ok State can take a giant step forward with a win over Oklahoma this week in terms of really becoming a player in this conference and inching closer towards the perch that’s long been occupied by Oklahoma and Texas as favorites to win the Big 12 year in and year out.

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Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Oklahoma Sooners Pick-Odds-Prediction 12/7/13

Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

If senior QB Clint Chelf has indeed transformed himself from a QB that’s struggled to surpass 200 yards passing in a game, and only did so twice before Baylor, to the machine-like QB we saw against the Bears that connected on 19-of-25 for 370 yards and 3 TDs and gave the appearance of a man possessed, this is a team that, at its best, is as is good as anyone in the country. On the defensive side, the Cowboys have been stout for much of the year, holding their opponents to 18.8 ppg and ranking 12th nationally. No team has scored more than 29 points on this defense outside of Texas Tech and Texas-San Antonio (god only knows what happened there) and Ok State absolutely stuffed Baylor’s top-ranked offense, holding them to just 17 points or about 46 points below their average at the time. So there’ll be no national title shot this season for the Cowboys and a win here will likely land them in the Fiesta Bowl against non-AQ qualifier Northern Illinois, as anticlimactic as that is. Tough to find a silver lining, but if there is one, I guess it would have to be that Ok State was good enough this season to come up just short. Again.

The Sooners, meanwhile, can’t win the Big 12 with a win here and probably can’t do much to improve their bowl game outlook either. As it stands now, OU is projected to land in the Alamo Bowl to face the Pac-12’s second place finisher. Making matters worse, the Sooners are a double-digit underdog for the first time ever against Oklahoma State. Somehow, though, Bob Stoops doesn’t see this as an opportunity to play spoiler to the Cowboys chances and this week said the game is more importantly one of the great rivalries in college football. If that’s true, nobody else knows about it. That notion might be helped along by Ok State actually winning a few. More pressing for Stoops is who will be his starting quarterback. At the moment, it looks like freshman Trevor Knight will get the start, but as we’ve seen this season, that’s subject to change and change quickly. Knight seems to have cemented himself as the starter with his last two performances. Against Iowa State, Knight rushed for 123 yards and 1 TD, but passed for just 61 yards on 8-of-14 attempts and against Kansas State Knight had 82 yards rushing and 1 TD and threw for 171 yards and 1 TD on 14-of-20. The Sooners are much more one-dimensional with Knight under center than they are with Blake Bell, but Oklahoma’s 15th-ranked ground game, which averages 242.3 yards per outing, usually means they don’t need to put the ball in the air much. But they could against Oklahoma State, which would obviously present a problem for Knight. Good thing Bell’s waiting in the wings. Defensively, the Sooners have been solid, ranking 21st nationally and giving up 21.1 ppg.

Betting Trends: Oklahoma State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games, 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games, 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games against Oklahoma, the total has gone under in 5 of Ok State’s last 6 home games, and the total has gone over in 5 of Ok State’s last 6 home games against Oklahoma. Oklahoma is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games against Ok State, 8-2 SU in its last 10 road games, the total has gone over in 6 of Oklahoma’s last 9 road games and the total has gone over in 4 of Oklahoma’s last 6 road games against Ok State.

Rick’s Pick: The line in this one is currently set at  -11 for Ok State with a 58 point total. The Cowboys looked like a legitimate top 5 team against Baylor, while the Sooners looked like a team that didn’t quite know what to do once they got clocked in the jaw in losses to Texas and Baylor. And they’re certain to get slapped around here. Look for Ok State to cover.

Follow me on Twitter @SCPRick

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