Fresno State Bulldogs at New Mexico Lobos CFB Pick, Odds, Prediction - 9/26/14
Fresno State Bulldogs (1-3) at New Mexico Lobos (1-2)
College Football: Friday, September 26, 2014 at 8:00 pm (University Stadium)
The Line: New Mexico Lobos +5 -- Over/Under: 73 See the Latest Odds
The Fresno State Bulldogs travel to University Stadium to take on the New Mexico Lobos on Friday.
The Fresno State Bulldogs have gotten off to a rocky 1-3 start and it’s not because they miss Derek Carr. Instead, Fresno State’s defense is allowing 541 yards per game and 45.5 points per game, which is good for 125th in the country. About the only good thing the Bulldogs defense has done is forced five turnovers and six sacks. Kyrie Wilson leads Fresno State with 31 tackles and Ejiro Ederaine has five tackles for loss. Offensively, Fresno State has a deep backfield that’s averaging 4.6 yards per carry and led by Marteze Waller and quarterback Brian Burrell, a duo that’s produced more than 400 yards and four touchdowns. Fresno State quarterbacks have thrown for eight touchdowns and five interceptions, while senior wide receiver Josh Harper is the only player with double-digit receptions. While the Bulldogs offense could use some improvement, they’re not going to win any games with a defense that doesn’t show up at all.
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The New Mexico Lobos look to keep the momentum going after picking up their first win last week against New Mexico State. The Lobos have the third best rushing attack in the country, averaging 6.5 yards per carry and producing 16 running plays of 20 or more yards. Cole Gautsche and Jhurell Pressley have combined for more than 400 yards and four touchdowns. With a running game that successful, New Mexico doesn’t even bother to throw the football, as they have 161 rushing attempts and just 34 pass attempts. The Lobos offensive game plan isn’t going to change here. Defensively, the New Mexico Lobos are allowing 524.7 yards per game and have forced three turnovers and one sack. Dakota Cox leads New Mexico with 45 tackles and Javarie Johnson has the team’s only sack.
The Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Lobos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
The Lobos aren’t a team that’s been good at covering the spread lately, but the lack of defense from Fresno State makes the Bulldogs an automatic fade for me. New Mexico should be able to stick to its incredible ground game, shorten up the clock and have a chance to win this thing in the end. I’m taking the points.