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Houston Cougars vs. SMU Mustangs - 10/8/15 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Southern Methodist Mustangs (1-4) at Houston Cougars (4-0)

College Football: Thursday, October 8, 2015 at 8:00 pm (TDECU Stadium)

The Line: Houston Cougars -21 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds


The Southern Methodist Mustangs visit TDECU Stadium to tangle the Houston Cougars.

The SMU Mustangs have shown improvement in my eyes but have struggled defensively. The SMU have fallen to 1-4 after a 49-23 defeat to visiting East Carolina in week five. A 28-0 ECU run in the second half broke open a close game with the Pirates rolling up a 555-329 yardage edge. The SMU couldn’t run so they were one dimensional with Matt Davis going 19-37 for 249 yards with a pair of touchdowns which wasn’t enough. Jeremiah Gaines led the SMU with 96 yards on four receptions and a score while Xavier Castille posted three catches for 51 yards and a touchdown.

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Houston Cougars vs. SMU Mustangs - 10/8/15 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction


The Houston Cougars might be the surprise team in the early going with a high octane offense paving the way to a 5-0 record. The Cougars proved they could play a little defense in a 38-24 victory at a good offensive Tulsa squad. Houston gave up 456 yards and forced a pair of turnovers but overwhelmed the Golden Hurricane with 638 yards with the ability to both run and throw. Dual threat quarterback Greg Ward Jr. led Houston with 273 passing yards while running for 182 yards and three touchdowns on 20 carries. Kenneth Farrow gave the Cougars  another productive rushing option with 159 yards and a pair of TD’s on 19 totes while Demarcus Ayers paced the receivers with six catches for 77 yards.

The over is 5-0 in SMU'S last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game and is 6-0 in SMU's last 6 road games while going  9-1 in Mustangs last 10 games in October. The Cougars are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game and the over is 3-0-1 in Houston's last 4 games on turf while going 3-0-1 in Cougars last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Houston and the SMU is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings while the home team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. SMU struggled to run the ball. I don’t feel comfortable with the spread and would rather look at the Cougars team total when it comes out…

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