Massachusetts vs. Toledo - 10/24/15 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Toledo Rockets (6-0) at Massachusetts Minutemen (1-5)
College Football: Saturday, October 24, 2015 at 3:00 pm (Gillette Stadium)
The Line: Massachusetts Minutemen +10.5 -- Over/Under: 57 See the Latest Odds
TV: ESPN 3
The 19th ranked Toledo Rockets will look to remain undefeated on the season as they travel to Gillette Stadium to take on the Massachusetts Minutemen in College Football action this Saturday afternoon.
The Toledo Rockets had a slow start against the Eastern Michigan Eagles this past Saturday but found their offense in the 2nd quarter and went out to easily defeat the Eagles 63-20 to improve to a perfect 6-0 (3-0 MAC West) on the season. Toledo scored eight TD’s between the 2nd and 3rd quarter and outgained Eastern Michigan by a 611-458 margin. Leading the way for the Rockets in the victory was QB Phillip Ely who completed 18 of 27 passes for 327 yards and 4 TD’s. On the season, Toledo is averaging 34.7 ppg on 446.2 yards per game (241.7 passing, 204.5 rushing). Toledo has a solid rushing attacked led by Kareem Hunt (49 carries, 259 yards, 3 TD) who was a 1st-team All-MAC RB in 2014. Hunt has been limited this year due to a two-game suspension and injuries but Toledo hasn’t missed a beat with its running game as Terry Swanson (60 carries, 472 yards, 4 TD) and Damion Jones-Moore (61 carries, 326 yards, 5 TD) have been outstanding. QB Phillip Ely has completed 55.3% of his passes for 1379 yards, 10 TD and 4 INT. Leading the way at the WR position has been Cody Thompson (16 receptions, 374 yards, 2 TD) and Corey Jones (31 receptions, 283 yards, 3 TD). Defensively, Toledo has been tough to score on as they are holding their opponents to an average of just 13.2 ppg on 363.7 yards per game (242.5 passing, 121.2 rushing). The Rockies have a plus 5 turnover margin on the season and have been led defensively by DL Orion Jones (28 tackles, 5 sacks) and LB Jaylen Coleman (48 tackles, 1 INT).
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The Massachusetts Minutemen struggled finding their offensive and dropped to 1-5 (0-2 MAC – East) on the season after being defeated 15-10 by the Kent State Golden Flashes this past Saturday. Kent State held the Minutemen scoreless in the 2nd half and outgained the UMass by a 327-257 margin. Leading the way for the Minutemen was TE Rodney Mills who had 96 yards on 4 receptions in the loss. On the season, UMass is averaging just 22.7 ppg on 425.5 yards (327.5 passing, 98.0 rushing). Leading the way for the UMass offensive has been WR Tajae Sharpe who College Football leading 65 receptions for 738 yards and 2 TD. QB Blake Frohnapfel has struggled a bit on the season as the senior QB has completed just 58.5% of his passes for 1794 yards, 10 TD’s and 5 INT. Leading the rushing attack has been Marquis Young (35 carries, 291 yards, 1 TD) and Jamal Wilson (35 carries, 140 yards, 3 TD). Defensively, the Minutemen have had trouble keeping their opponents off the board as they are currently allowing 37.7 ppg on 489.5 yards per game (258.7 passing, 230.8 rushing). UMass currently has a minus 4 turnover margin and has been led on defense by LB Jovan Santo-Knox (59 tackles, 2.5 sacks).
The Rockets are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games however, just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Minutemen are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
Toledo has been outstanding this season but I think this could be a game that they overlook. UMass has been competitive in all three games they’ve played at Gillette Stadium this season including losing a tough game against Temple 25-23 earlier this season. I think UMass focuses on stopping the Toledo rushing part, similar to what they successfully did against one of the better RB’s in the country in Temple’s Jahad Thomas, and they get enough offensive from Frohnapfel, Sharpe and Mills to keep this one within the number. Take UMass and the points in this one.