Kentucky vs. New Mexico State - 9/17/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
New Mexico State Aggies (1-1) at Kentucky Wildcats (0-2)
College Football: Saturday, September 17, 2016 at 4:00 pm (Commonwealth Stadium)
The Line: Kentucky Wildcats -18.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
TV: SEC Network
The Kentucky Wildcats and the New Mexico State Aggies face off on Saturday in Lexington in week 3 college football action.
The Kentucky Wildcats are off to a disappointing 0-2 start and are coming off of a beat down loss at Florida. For the season the UK offense is averaging 21 points and 279 yards per game and they have turned the ball over 7 times. Wildcats QB Drew Barker has completed 50 percent of his passes for 333 yards and four touchdowns but he has thrown four interceptions. Boom Williams is Kentucky’s top rusher with 160 yards while Garrett Johnson is the top receiver with six catches and two touchdowns. Defensively Kentucky is allowing 44.5 points and 542 yards per game with four interceptions and three sacks. Jordan Jones is UK’s leading tackler with 28, Blake McClain has 18, and Courtney Love is among those with 15 tackles. Kentucky will simply need to start winning or head coach Mark Stoops may be looking for employment elsewhere.
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The New Mexico State Aggies are 1-1 this season and are coming off of a win against rival New Mexico. NMSU QB Tyler Rodgers is coming off of a 21 of 35 passing outing for 205 yards and two touchdowns. Last week the Aggies leaned on Xavier Hall in the rushing game as he gained 61 yards and scored a touchdown. Gregory Hogan led New Mexico State in receiving with four catches and a touchdown and Royce Caldwell had two catches for 57 yards. NMSU allowed just 115 yards through the air but allowed 221 yards on the ground for getting the 32-31 win. This will be a serious test for NMSU as they face a motivated Kentucky team on the road.
Kentucky is 1-4 against the spread against the Sun Belt, 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 home games, and 1-9 against the spread in their last 10 games. New Mexico State is 8-20 against the spread in their last 28 road games, 2-5 against the spread in their last seven non-conference games, and 0-7 against the spread against the SEC.
While this game looks like a mismatch, I can’t believe Kentucky can beat anyone by 18.5 points right now so my play is NMSU.