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Florida State Seminoles vs. North Carolina Tar Heels - 10/1/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

North Carolina Tar Heels (3-1) at Florida State Seminoles (3-1)

College Football: Saturday, October 1, 2016 at 3:30 pm (Doak Campbell Stadium)

The Line: Florida State Seminoles -12 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds


Down at Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee on Saturday, October 1, we’ve got Week 5 college football action on the schedule between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the Florida State Seminoles. 

The Tar Heels come into this one at 3-1, following a nail-biter 37-36 victory over Pittsburgh on Saturday. QB Mitch Trubisky got to play the hero in that one, as he marched the Tar Heels down the field and found Bug Howard with a 2-yard TD pass with just two seconds left to play. Trubisky would finish his big day with a 35-of-46 line for 453 yards and five touchdowns. Ryan Switzer was the main beneficiary here with a whopping 16 receptions for 208 yards and a TD. 

Florida State Seminoles vs. North Carolina Tar Heels - 10/1/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction


On the season, Trubisky holds 1306 yards on 102-of-137 passing for 10 touchdowns and no picks. Elijah Hood is the Tar Heels’ leading rusher with 291 yards and four touchdowns on 54 carries, while Switzer is far and away the biggest receiver for North Carolina with 33 grabs for 429 yards and two scores. 

Over on the Florida State side, they’re coming into this week’s game at 3-1, following a 55-35 victory over South Florida in their last appearance. The Seminoles’ Dalvin Cook was the human highlight reel here, with a career-high 267 rush yards and two touchdowns. Deondre Francois helped out in the air with an 11-of-19 line for 169 yards and a TD—and also logged 10 rushes for 75 yards and another score. Cook was also the Seminoles’ leading receiver against South Florida, bagging four receptions for 62 yards. 

So far this year, Francois has a 76-of-121 line with 951 yards, seven scores and two picks. Cook’s big total last week pushes him up to 78 carries, 495 yards and four touchdowns for Florida State. Travis Rudolph has a firm grip on the leading receiver honor, with 16 grabs for 233 yards and three touchdowns. 

The Tar Heels are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in October, and 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. North Carolina is also 8-3 ATS against a team with a winning record, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games versus a team with a winning home record. 

As for the Seminoles, they’re 6-0 ATS in their last six games on grass, and 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. Florida State is also 7-2 in their last nine games overall, and 5-2 ATS versus a team with a winning record. 

This should be a great game, and could very well end up being close. Still, I think Florida State outmatches the Tar Heels on paper, and the Seminoles have every opportunity to snag a big victory here.

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