Arkansas State vs. Georgia Southern - 10/5/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Georgia Southern Eagles (3-1) at Arkansas State Red Wolves (0-4)
College Football: Wednesday, October 5, 2016 at 8:00 pm (Centennial Bank Stadium)
The Line: Arkansas State Red Wolves +6.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
TV: ESPN 2
The Georgia Southern Eagles will travel to Centennial Bank Stadium to take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves this Wednesday night in College Football action.
The Georgia Southern Eagles lost their first game of the season and dropped to 3-1 (2-0 Sun Belt) on the year after being defeated by the Western Michigan Broncos, 49-31, this past Saturday. Georgia Southern played the Broncos tough early, but was outscored by a 28-10 margin in the 2nd quarter and couldn’t overcome a 35-17 halftime deficit. Georgia Southern was outgained by Western Michigan by a 407-370 margin and lost the turnover battle by a 4-0 margin. Leading the way for the Eagles was QB Favian Upshaw who completed 4 of 6 passes for 103 yards, 2 TD, and an INT while chipping in 38 yards on the ground. On the season, Georgia Southern is averaging 33.0 ppg on 458.0 total yards per game (140.3 passing, 317.8 rushing). Georgia Southern features the 4th ranked rushing offensive in the country which is led by QB Favian Upshaw (10.8 att/g, 63.5 yds/g, 2 TD), RB Wesley Fields (10.5 att/g, 63.0 yds/g, 3 TD), RB Matt Breida (15.0 att/g, 59.25 yds/g, TD), QB Kevin Ellison (11.8 att/g, 56.8 yds/g, 3 TD), and RB L.A. Rambsy (9.0 att/g, 46.7 yds/g, 2 TD). The Eagles don’t throw the ball much as QB’s Favian Upshaw and Kevin Ellison have combined to complete 56.9% of their passes for 5 TD, 3 INT while averaging 140.3 passing yards per game. WR’s Montay Crockett (1.8 rec/g, 42.0 yds/g, TD), BJ Johnson III (2.8 rec/g, 39.8 yds/g), and RB Wesley Fields (1.3 rec/g, 24.3 yds/g, 2 TD) are the leading receivers for the Eagles. Defensively, Georgia Southern is holding their opponents to an average of 19.8 ppg on 305.8 total yards per game (228.0 passing, 77.8 rushing). On the season, the Eagles have a turnover margin of -2.
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Arkansas State remained winless on the season and dropped to 0-4 (0-0 Sun Belt) on the year after being defeated by the FCS Central Arkansas Bears, 28-23, on September 24th. Arkansas State struggled with turnovers in the loss and was outscored by the Bears by a 14-0 margin in the 4th quarter in the loss. The Red Wolves outgained Central Arkansas by a 469-382 margin however, loss the turnover battle by a 4-0 margin. Leading the way for Arkansas State was QB Justice Hansen who completed 21 of 38 passes for 424 yards, 3 TD, and 2 INT. On the season, Arkansas State is averaging just 16.8 ppg on 354.5 total yards per game (273.8 passing, 80.8 rushing). Offensviely, the Red Wolves have been led by WR Blake Mack who is averaging 5 receptions per game for 90.0 yds/game. WR’s Cam Echols-Luper (2.8 rec/g, 52.8 yds/g, TD) and Christian Booker (4.5 rec/g, 52.5 yds/g) are the other main receiving threats for the Red Wolves. QB’s Justice Hansen (58.1 comp %, 186.5 passing yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INT) and Chad Voytik (54.9 comp %, 116.3 passing yds/game, 1 INT) have taken about equal snaps for the Red Wolves with Hansen getting the last start. Arkansas State’s backfield is led by Warren Wand who has a TD on the season while averaging 57.0 rushing yds/game. Defensively, Arkansas State is allowing their opponents to average 36.0 ppg on 494.5 total yards per game (255.3 passing, 239.3 rushing). Arkansas State currently has a -3 turnover margin on the season.
The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Red Wolves are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games however, are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Georgia Southern led the country in rushing offense in 2015 and with the main pieces of the offense returning, it looks as if the Eagles will once again be in the top-5 in the country in rushing offense. Arkansas State had a brutal non-conference schedule to start their season with games against Toledo, Auburn, and Utah State but the Red Wolves have to be real disappointed that they couldn’t pick up their first victory of the season at home against a FCS opponent. The Red Wolves numbers will get better when conference play begins however, as Arkansas State has struggled against the run (ranked 117th in College Football), I think Georgia State will have no problem controlling this game and putting up enough points to cover this spread. Take Georgia State to cover.