Tulsa vs. SMU - 10/7/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
SMU Mustangs (2-3) at Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-1)
College Football: Friday, October 7, 2016 at 8:00 pm (Chapman Stadium)
The Line: Tulsa Golden Hurricane -17 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
TV: ESPN 2
The SMU Mustangs will travel to Chapman Stadium to take on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane this Friday night in College Football action.
The SMU Mustangs lost their 2nd straight game and dropped to 2-3 (0-1 AAC) on the season after being defeated by the Temple Owls, 45-20, this past Saturday. SMU had no answers for the Owls rushing attack and couldn’t comeback after falling behind by a 35-14 margin at halftime. SMU was outgained by Temple by a 368-288 margin and lost the turnover battle by a 4-3 margin. Leading the way for the Mustangs was QB Ben Hicks who completed 22 of 42 passes for 199 yards, 2 TD, and 2 INT. On the season, SMU is averaging just 19.8 ppg on 416.0 total yards per game (236.2 passing, 179.8 rushing). Offensively, leading the way for the Mustangs has been WR Courtland Sutton who had 4 TD’s and is averaging 98.4 receiving yards on 4.4 rec/game. SMU’s other threats at the WR position has been James Proche (5.4 rec/g, 63.2 yds/g, TD) and Xavier Castille (3.4 rec/g, 31.2 yds/g). SMU suffered a big blow losing QB Matt Davis for the year in the season opener. QB Ben Hicks has struggled at bit early in the season as he has completed just 50.6% of his passes for 4 TD and 9 INT while averaging 205.2 yds/g. The Mustangs rushing attack has been led by Braeden West (15.0 att/g, 79.4 yds/g, 2 TD) and Ke’Mon Freeman (11.6 att/g, 50.0 yds/g). Defensively, SMU is allowing their opponents to average 30.6 ppg on an average of 433.4 total yards per game (266.2 passing, 167.2 rushing). SMU has forced their opponents to commit 14 turnovers on the season however, have also had trouble protecting the football and currently has a turnover margin of just plus 1 on the season.
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The Tulsa Golden Hurricane won their 2nd straight game and improved to 3-1 (0-0 AAC) on the season after defeating the Fresno State Bulldogs, 48-41 2-OT, on September 24th. Tulsa looked like they had no chance early in this one as they went down 31-0 early in the 2nd quarter, but never gave up and used a strong defensive 2nd half to get back into the game and secure the win in OT. Tulsa had an impressive 334 rushing yards and outgained Fresno State by a 607-453 margin in the victory. Leading the way for the Golden Hurricane was RB D’Angelo Brewer who had 242 rushing yards on 46 carries. On the season, Tulsa is averaging 38.5 ppg on 450.0 total yards per game (241.3 passing, 208.8 rushing). Offensively, leading the way for the Golden Hurricane has been the backfield duo of D’Angelo Brewer (24.3 att/g, 133.5 yds/g, 3 TD) and James Flanders (12.3 att/g, 64.5 yds/g, 3 TD). QB Dane Evans has completed 59.3% of his passes for 8 TD and 6 INT while averaging 222.0 yds/g. Tulsa’s main threats at the receiver position have been Keevan Lucas (6.0 rec/g, 98.8 yds/g, 5 TD), Justin Hobbs (4.5 rec/g, 60.3 yds/g, 2 TD), and Josh Atkinson (5.3 rec/g, 59.8 yds/g). Defensively, Tulsa is allowing their opponents to average 30.0 ppg on an average of 381.3 total yards per game (225.5 passing, 155.8 rushing). Tulsa has committed 10 turnovers on the season and currently has a season turnover margin of -2.
The Mustangs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss and just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games. The Golden Hurricane are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss however, just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.
SMU is better than the 2-10 team we saw in 2015 however, the loss of QB Matt Davis has really hurt the Mustangs offense as SMU ranks just 117th in the country in scoring offense. Tulsa has had an up and down season as although the offense certainly has plenty weapons that can put up points, the Tulsa defense ranks just 83rd in scoring defense and still has the tendency to allowed their opponents to put up points in a hurry against them. I think this would have been a tight game if SMU had Matt Davis but as I just don’t see SMU being able to put up a lot of points, even against a weak Tulsa defense, I think Tulsa will pull away from the Mustangs in the 2nd half and cover this large home spread. Take Tulsa to cover.