Nevada vs. Fresno State - 10/8/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Fresno State Bulldogs (1-4) at Nevada Wolf Pack (2-3)
College Football: Saturday, October 8, 2016 at 7:00 pm (Mackay Stadium)
The Line: Nevada Wolf Pack -9.5 -- Over/Under: 55.5 See the Latest Odds
TV: ESPN 3
The Fresno State Bulldogs will travel to Mackay Stadium to take on the Nevada Wolfpack this Saturday night in College Football action.
The Fresno State Bulldogs dropped to 1-4 (0-1 MW) on the season after being defeated by the UNLV Rebels, 45-20, this past Saturday. Fresno State had little answers for the UNLV offense and couldn’t make a comeback after falling behind by a 21-7 margin at halftime. Fresno State was outgained by UNLV by a 493-360 margin and allowed the Rebels to rush for 364 yards. Leading the way for the Bulldogs was WR Aaron Peck who had 2 TD’s and 194 receiving yards on 5 receptions. On the season, Fresno State is averaging 23.8 ppg on 363.0 total yards per game (258.4 passing, 104.6 rushing). Offensively, the Bulldogs have been led by QB Chason Virgil who has completed 47.1% of his passes for 8 TD and 4 INT while averaging 233.8 passing yds/g. Aaron Peck (5.2 rec/g, 92.4 yds/g, 3 TD), Jamire Jordan (4.2 rec/g, 71.0 yds/g, 2 TD), and KeeSean Johnson (6.2 rec/g, 66.2 yds/g, 3 TD) have been the leading receivers for the Bulldogs. Dontel James (18.2 att/g, 59.8 yds/g, 2 TD) is main rushing threat for Fresno State. Defensively, Fresno State is allowing their opponents to average 38.2 ppg on 462.0 total yards per game (181.2 rushing, 280.8 passing). Fresno State’s defense has only forced 4 turnovers on the season and currently have a turnover margin of -3.
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The Nevada Wolfpack lost their 2nd straight game and dropped to 2-3 (0-1 MW) on the season after being defeated by the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors, 38-17, this past Saturday. Nevada put up little fight against Hawai’i and couldn’t make a comeback after falling behind 38-3 by the end of the 3rd quarter. Nevada was outgained by Hawai’i by a 566-397 margin and surprisingly struggled against the Rainbow Warriors defense the current ranks 124th in College Football in scoring defense. Leading the way for the Wolfpack was James Butler who had 168 rushing yards on 21 carries. On the season, Nevada is averaging 21.8 ppg on 366.8 total yards per game (189.4 passing, 177.4 rushing). Offensively, the Wolfpack have been led by RB James Butler who had 5 TD’s and is averaging 110.6 rushing yds/g. QB Tyler Stewart has completed 65.1% of his passes for 6 TD and an INT while averaging 168.6 passing yds/g. Nevada has five receivers who average between 20 and 40 receiving yards per game and are led by Andrew Celis (2.4 rec/g, 43.4 yds/g), Wyatt Demps (3.6 rec/g, 36.4 yds/g, 3 TD), and Jerico Richardson (3.2 rec/g, 34.2 yds/g, TD). Defensively, Nevada is allowing their opponents to average 28.4 ppg on 456.4 total yards per game (183.8 passing, 272.6 rushing). Nevada has only committed on 1 turnover on the season and currently has a turnover margin of +6.
The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss however, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. The Wolfpack are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Fresno State certainly has a lot of talent at the skill positions however, have really struggled on the defensive end generating turnovers and currently rank 114th in scoring defense. Nevada has had an unexpected slow start to the season as their only wins have come against an FCS team (Cal Poly Mustangs) and a Buffalo Bulls team that is just 1-3 on the season. Nevada’s offensive stats are a bit puzzling based on their results as although they’ve gotten good QB play, have a great RB averaging over 100 yds/g, and haven’t committed turnovers, the Wolfpack have struggled putting points on the board as evident with their recent performance against Hawai’i. Fresno State certainly has some talent but as Nevada’s biggest weakness is their rush defense, which shouldn’t be a huge issue in this game, I think the Wolfpack will right the ship at home in this one and cover this single-digit spread. Take Nevada to cover.