San Diego State Aztecs at Fresno State Bulldogs - 10/14/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
San Diego State Aztecs (4-1) at Fresno State Bulldogs (1-5)
College Football: Friday, October 14, 2016 at 10:00 pm (Bulldog Stadium)
The Line: Fresno State Bulldogs +17.5 -- Over/Under: 52 See the Latest Odds
Bulldog Stadium and the Fresno State Bulldogs host the rival San Diego State Aztecs.
The San Diego State Aztecs looked completely unfocused in a week five loss at South Alabama but rebounded to shut down UNLV 26-7. The Aztecs could have likely done even more damage as they won the yardage battle 460-122 with 38 minutes of possession with the Rebels lone touchdown coming on a fumble return. SDSU quarterback Christian Chapman was deadly efficient, completing 15-20 for 215 yards and a touchdown but the rushing was devastating. Donnel Pumphrey and Rashaad Penny were the Aztecs weapons of choice with 252 rushing yards and a score each on 45 carries while Pumphrey caught seven passes for 57 yards and Penny hauled in a 41 yard touchdown strike.
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The Fresno State Bulldogs are going through a stage where they need to establish some sort of identity. The Bulldogs are struggling right now with four consecutive defeats where neither side of the ball are on the same page. The Bulldogs had issues scoring in a 27-22 loss at Nevada as an 8.5 point underdog where they outgained the Wolf Pack 452-389 but lost a pair of fumbles. Fresno quarterback Chason Virgil was successful in the short passing game, going 16-27 for 197 yards and a touchdown with top receiver KeeSean Johnson grabbing five passes for 71 yards. On the ground, Dontel James was the work horse with 169 yards on 27 carries as the team moved the ball but had trouble getting to the endzone.
San Diego State are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and San Diego State are 0-2-2 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game while San Diego State are 9-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in Fresno State last 4 games following a ATS win and is 6-0 in Fresno State last 6 vs. a team with a winning record while Fresno State are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings and San Diego State are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
I am taking the over because San Diego State should be able to run and run and run…then run some more with plenty of trips to the endzone…