Arkansas State vs. South Alabama - 10/15/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
South Alabama Jaguars (3-2) at Arkansas State Red Wolves (1-4)
College Football: Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 7:00 pm (Centennial Bank Stadium)
The Line: Arkansas State Red Wolves -6 -- Over/Under: 52.5 See the Latest Odds
TV: ESPN 3
The South Alabama Jaguars will travel to Centennial Bank Stadium to take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves this Saturday night in College Football action.
The South Alabama Jaguars improved to 3-2 (0-2 Sun Belt) on the season after pulling off the 42-24 upset of the 19th ranked San Diego State Aztecs on October 1st. In what was a close game throughout, South Alabama was able to pull away for the victory after outscoring the Aztecs by a 21-0 margin in the 4th quarter. South Alabama outgained San Diego State by a 331-316 margin and also won the turnover battle by a 2-0 margin. Leading the way for the Jaguars was QB Cole Garvin who completed 16 of 21 passes for 242 yards, 3 TD, and an INT. On the season, South Alabama is averaging 27.2 ppg on 382.0 yards per game (152.8 passing, 223.4 rushing). Offensively, South Alabama has been led by QB Dallas Davis who has completed 58.1% of his passes for 5 TD and 5 INT while averaging 282.5 passing yds/game. The Jaguars have to be happy with the performance they got out of back-up QB Cole Garvin in his first career game as Garvin had to fill in for Dallas Davis who missed last game due to turf toe. Leading the Jaguars backfield has been Xavier Johnson (13.0 att/g, 44.0 yds/g, 2 TD), Tyreis Thomas (9.5 att/g, 40.3 yds/g, 3 TD), and Dami Ayoola (5.0 att/g, 16.2 yds/g, 2 TD). TE Gerald Everett (5.2 rec/g, 78.6 yds/g, 3 TD), WR Kevin Kutchera (3.2 rec/g, 63.2 yds/g, TD), and Josh Magee (4.4 rec/g, 51.8 yds/g, 2 TD) have been the most active receivers for South Alabama. Defensively, South Alabama is allowing their opponents to average 27.2 ppg on 376.2 yards per game (152.8 passing, 223.4 rushing).
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The Arkansas State Red Wolves (1-4; 1-0 Sun Belt) picked up their first victory of the season after defeating the Georgia Southern Eagles, 27-26, this past Wednesday. Arkansas State had a hard time protecting the football as they committed 5 turnovers in the game, however, was able to stay close to the Eagles through the game and won it in dramatic fashion, scoring the winning TD on an 8-yard reception with just 8 seconds left in the game. Arkansas State outgained Georgia Southern by a 525-365 margin in the victory. Leading the way for the Red Wolves was RB Warren Ward who had a TD and 140 rushing yards on 19 carries. On the season, Arkansas State is averaging 18.8 ppg on 388.6 total yards per game (255.4 passing, 133.2 rushing). Offensively, Arkansas State is led by the RB duo of Warren Wand (15.4 att/g, 73.6 yds/g, 2 TD) and Johnston White (8.3 att/g, 37.3 yds/g). QB Justice Hansen has completed 58.4% of his passes for 6 TD and 5 INT while averaging 185.6 passing yds/game. TE Blake Mack (4.4 rec/g, 77.8 yds/g), WR Cam Echols-Luper (2.2 rec/g, 42.2 yds/g, TD), and WR Kendall Sanders (2.0 rec/g, 27.8 yds/g, TD) have been the leading receivers for the Red Wolves. Arkansas State has allowed their opponents to average 34.0 ppg on 468.6 total yards per game (244.8 passing, 223.8 rushing). Arkansas State needs to do a better job protecting the football as they’ve committed 12 turnovers on the season and have a turnover margin of -8.
The Jaguars are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 games overall and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. The Red Wolves are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win however, just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
South Alabama has had an interesting season to date as they’ve picked up huge wins against Mississippi State and San Diego State, however, have lost both of their conference games and was hardly able to beat the FCS Nichols Colonels at home. Arkansas State had a very tough schedule to open their season which has really affected their overall numbers, however, they still need to find ways to be more productive on offensive as the Red Wolves ranked 121st in College Football when it comes to scoring offense. Although South Alabama has pulled off some impressive wins this season, Arkansas State has more talent on their team and as long as they can limit their turnovers, I think the Red Wolves pull away in this one and cover this spread at home. Take Arkansas State to cover.