New Mexico vs. Air Force - 10/15/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Air Force Falcons (4-1) at New Mexico Lobos (2-3)
College Football: Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 3:30 pm (Cotton Bowl)
The Line: New Mexico Lobos +14 -- Over/Under: 60 See the Latest Odds
TV: ESPN News
The New Mexico Lobos will travel to the Cotton Bowl (TX) to take on the Air Force Falcons this Saturday afternoon in College Football action.
The New Mexico Lobos dropped to 2-3 (1-1 MW) on the season after being defeated by the 19th ranked Boise State Broncos, 49-21, this past Friday. New Mexico had no answers on the defensive end in the 1st half and couldn’t fight back into the game after falling behind 42-7 at halftime. New Mexico was outgained by Boise State by a 456-421 margin and allowed the Broncos to gain 391 yards through the air. Leading the way for the Lobos was QB Lamar Jordan who had 139 rushing yards on 21 carries while completed 4 of 14 passes for 39 yards, TD, and an INT. Offensively, New Mexico is averaging 35.2 ppg on 465.0 total yards per game (111.0 passing, 354.0 rushing). Offensively, the Lobos are led by the top-ranked rushing offense in College Football. Leading the rushing attack has been RB Teriyon Gipson (10.33 att/g, 133.0 yds/g, 5 TD), RB Tyrone Owens (12.6 att/g, 78.0 yds/g, 2 TD), QB Lamar Jordan (12.5 att/g, 71.75 yds/g, TD), and Richard McQuarley (9.40 att/g, 48.4 yds/g, 7 TD). QB Lamar Jordan has completed just 16 of 33 passes for 168 yards, TD, and an INT since replacing QB Austin Apodaca who is out with a collarbone injury. Matt Quarells (1.6 rec/g, 26.8 yds/g, TD) and Patrick Reed (1.4 rec/g, 23.8 yds/g, TD) are the leading receivers for the Lobos. Defensively, New Mexico is allowing their opponents to average 36.0 ppg on 375.8 total yards per game (244.6 passing, 131.2 rushing). New Mexico has only forced 5 turnovers on the season and have a turnover margin of -2.
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The Air Force Falcons lost their first game of the season and dropped to 4-1 (1-1 MW) on the year after being defeated by the Wyoming Cowboys, 35-26, this past Saturday. Air Force’s usually strong rushing attacked was slowed down by the Cowboys and couldn’t fight back after falling behind by a 28-6 margin late in the 3rd quarter. Air Force was outgained by Wyoming by a 362-337 margin and lost the turnover battle by a 4-1 margin. On the season, Air Force is averaging 33.2 ppg on 445.2 total yards per game (165.2 passing, 280.0 rushing). Offensively, Air Force is known for their potent rushing attack which is currently ranked 7th in College Football. Leading the Falcons rushing attack has been RB D.J. Johnson (14.60 att/g, 65.8 yds/g), Jacobi Owens (8.6 att/g, 56.6 yds/g, 2 TD), RB Shayne Davern (10.2 att/g, 36.8 yds/g, TD), QB Nate Romine (12.0 att/g, 32.8 yds/g, TD), and RB Timothy McVey (3.8 att/g, 32.0 yds/g, 3 TD). QB Nate Romine has completed 41.5% of his passes for 7 TD and 3 INT while averaging 161.8 passing yds/game. WR Jalen Robinette (2.8 rec/g, 77.2 yds/g, 3 TD), RB Timothy McVey (0.8 rec/g, 29.0 yds/g, 2 TD), and TE Ryan Reffitt (1.0 rec/g, 22.6 yds/g, 2 TD) have been the leading receivers for the Falcons. Defensively, Air Force is holding their opponents to an average of 20.8 ppg on 324.4 total yards per game (244.2 passing, 80.2 rushing). Air Force currently has a turnover margin of -1 on the season.
The Lobos are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss however, just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Falcons are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and 9-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
New Mexico wasn’t able to pull off another upset of Boise State as they did last year and will have to hope that their best RB, Teriyon Gipson, who missed the Boise State game due to a hamstring injury will be ready to go against the Falcons. Air Force has to be disappointed about their effort at Wyoming however, this is still a football team with a great rushing attack and a defense that ranks 31st in scoring defense. Both of these offenses are rated in the top-10 of College Football, however, as New Mexico might be without their best rusher and for the fact that the Falcons have the 2nd ranked rushing defense in College Football, I’m going to take Air Force to cover in this one.