Kentucky vs. Mississippi State - 10/22/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Photo by USA TODAY Sports
Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-4) at Kentucky Wildcats (3-3)
College Football: Saturday, October 22, 2016 at 7:30 pm (Commonwealth Stadium)
The Line: Kentucky Wildcats +1.5 -- Over/Under: 53.5
TV: SEC Network
The Kentucky Wildcats and the Mississippi State Bulldogs face off on Saturday in Lexington in week 8 SEC college football action.
The Kentucky Wildcats are 3-3 this season and are coming off of a bye week. The UK Offense is averaging 24.5 points and 344.8 yards per game and they have turned the ball over 16 times. Wildcats QB Stephen Johnson threw for just 49 yards last game but for the season he has completed 57.8 percent of his passes with 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions and he has rushed for a touchdown. Stanley Williams leads Kentucky in rushing with 540 yards and 2 touchdowns and Garrett Johnson is the top receiver with 19 catches and 2 touchdowns and C.J. Conrad has 12 catches and 3 touchdowns. The Kentucky defense is allowing 31.3 points and 437 yards with 6 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries, and 14 sacks. Jordan Jones is Kentucky’s top tackler with 56, Mike Edwards has 51, and Courtney Love has 34. Kentucky appears to be improving on defense as the season has gone on.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 2-4 this season and if they hope to make a bowl game they have little room for error as they need to turn things around in a hurry. The MSU offense is averaging 24.8 points and 401.7 yards per game and they have turned the ball over 8 times. Bulldog QB Nick Fitzgerald has completed 55.2 percent of his passes with 8 touchdowns and 4 interceptions and he has rushed for 431 yards and 2 touchdowns. Brandon Holloway is Mississippi State’s top running back with 208 yards and Ashton Shumpert has 208 yards while Fred Ross is the leading receiver with 34 catches and 5 touchdowns. The MSU defense is allowing 26.5 points and 361.3 yards per game with 6 interceptions, 4 fumble recoveries, and 12 sacks. Richie Brown leads Mississippi State with 51 tackles, Leo Lewis has 43 tackles, and J.T. Gray has 38 tackles. The play calling has been awful for Mississippi State this season and the team just hasn’t been good enough to overcome it.
Kentucky is 1-5 against the spread at home against a team with a losing road record, the over is 6-0-1 in their last 7 home games against a team with a losing road record, and the under is 5-1 in their last 6 SEC games. Mississippi State is 4-1 against the spread in their last five road games, the under is 5-1 in their last 6 games, and they are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games against Kentucky. The road team has covered the point spread in 7 of the last 10 meetings of these two teams.
Kentucky is just playing the better football right now and while I don’t trust either of these teams or will I be going anywhere near this one, I have to take UK.