Navy vs. Memphis - 10/22/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Memphis Tigers (5-1) at Navy Midshipmen (4-1)
College Football: Saturday, October 22, 2016 at 3:30 pm (Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium)
The Line: Navy Midshipmen +2.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
TV: CBS Sports Network, CBS Sports.com College Sports Live
The Memphis Tigers will travel to the Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium to take on the 24th ranked Navy Midshipmen this Saturday afternoon in College Football action.
The Memphis Tigers won their 2nd straight game and improved to 5-1 (2-0 AAC) on the season after defeating the Tulane Green Wave, 24-14, this past Saturday. Memphis got two big plays by Darrell Henderson and was able to hang on for the victory after taking a 16-7 lead going into the 4th quarter. Memphis outgained Tulane by a 399-313 margin however, did commit three turnovers in the victory. Leading the way for Memphis was RB Darrell Henderson who combined for 142 total yards (75 rushing, 67 receiving) and 2 TD. On the season, Memphis is averaging 40.2 ppg on 438.3 total yards per game (274.0 passing, 164.3 rushing). Offensively, Memphis has been led by QB Riley Ferguson who had completed 65.5% of his passes for 12 TD and 6 INT while averaging 266.0 passing yds/game. WR Anthony Miller (5.3 rec/g, 73.0 yds/g, 2 TD), WR Phil Mayhue (4.0 rec/g, 59.0 yds/g, 2 TD), RB Darrell Henderson (2.0 rec/g, 22.3 yds/g, 3 TD) and RB Sam Craft (2.5 rec/g, 31.5 yds/g, TD) are the leading receivers for the Tigers. The Memphis backfield is led by Doroland Dorceus (9.83 att/g, 71.2 yds/g, 5 TD), Patrick Taylor Jr. (5.83 att/g, 40.3 yds/g, TD) and Darrell Henderson (4.33 att/g, 32.3 yds/g, 2 TD). Defensively, Memphis is holding their opponents to an average of 19.3 ppg on 388.2 total yards per game (248.2 passing, 140.0 rushing). Memphis has forced their opponents into committing 18 turnovers on the season and has an overall turnover margin of +7.
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The 24th ranked Navy Midshipmen moved into the ranking without playing a game after their contest against East Carolina was postponed due Hurricane Matthew. In the week prior, Navy pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the weekend and improved to 4-1 (3-0 AAC) after defeating the Houston Cougars, 46-40. Navy was outstanding against the usually stout Houston rush defense and capitalized on a few mistakes by the Cougars in the 2nd half to secure the victory. Navy was outgained by a 484-382 margin however, won the turnover battle by a 3-0 margin. Leading the way for Navy was QB Will Worth who completed 3 of 5 passes for 76 yards and 2 TD while adding 115 rushing yards and a TD on the ground. On the season, Navy is averaging 32.2 ppg on 392.0 yards per game (129.6 passing, 262.4 rushing). Navy uses a triple-option attack and currently has the 11th ranked rushing offense as they average 262.40 rushing yds/game. Leading the rushing attack has been RB Chris High (7.8 att/g, 64.0 yds/g, 5 TD), QB Will Worth (20.4 att/g, 57.60 yds/g, 6 TD), RB Toneo Gully (4.0 att/g, 36.4 yds/g), Dishan Romine (4.40 att/g, 32.8 yds/g), and Shawn White (4.6 att/g, 16.4 yds/g, 2 TD). QB Will Worth has completed 34 of 58 passes for 603 passing yards, 3 TD, and 2 INT. Jamir Tillman is the main wide receiver threat for Navy as he is averaging 3.6 rec/g and 54.2 yds/g. Defensively, Navy is allowing their opponents to average of 24.4 ppg on 398.6 total yards per game (240.6 passing, 158.0 rushing). Navy currently has committed just 6 turnovers on the season and currently have a turnover margin of plus 1.
The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October and 2-4 ATS on the season. Navy is 4-1 ATS this season and 3-0 ATS against AAC opponents this season.
Memphis comes into the matchup looking very solid on paper as they ranked 46th in total offense and 56th in total defense, however, outside of their 48-28 defeat against Ole Miss, the Tigers haven’t played much in competition. Navy came into the Houston game with a lot to prove after a few close wins (UConn & Tulane) and losing to Air Force however, showed all of College Football how dangerous their triple-option rushing attack can be putting up 306 rushing yards against Houston. I think that Memphis is a solid team but a bit overrated and although I’m still not completely sold that Navy is a top-25 team, I’m not going against the Midshipmen at home getting points. Take Navy and the points.