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Virginia Cavaliers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels - 10/22/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

North Carolina Tar Heels (5-2) at Virginia Cavaliers (2-4)

College Football: Saturday, October 22, 2016 at 3:00 pm (Scott Stadium)

The Line: Virginia Cavaliers +9 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds



The ACC will be active in Week 8 of the college football season, as the North Carolina Tar Heels take on the Virginia Cavaliers at David A. Harrison III Field at Scott Stadium on Saturday, October 22. 

Virginia Cavaliers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels - 10/22/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction


North Carolina comes into this game with a 5-2 record so far, fresh off a rousing 20-13 victory over Miami this past Saturday. In that one, Malik Carney forced a fumble that effectively iced the game for the Tar Heels. North Carolina QB Mitch Trubisky had a nice outing with a 33-of-46 line for 299 yards and two touchdowns, while TJ Logan was the lead rusher on 15 carries for 84 yards. Bug Howard hauled in 10 receptions for 156 yards for the Tar Heels. 

So far this season in North Carolina, Trubisky holds a 179-of-254 mark with 2068 yards and 15 touchdowns, while Logan is tops in rushing with 65 carries for 409 yards and five scores. Ryan Switzer is the Tar Heels’ leading receiver with 58 catches for 606 yards and three TDs. 

As for Virginia, they’re sporting a limp 2-4 record so far after their most recent defeat, a 45-31 affair against Pittsburgh. The Cavaliers were down 35-28 at halftime, and only 13 points were scored in the second half. Virginia QB Kurt Benkert put up a 20-of-44 line for 278 yards, a TD and an interception, while Taquan Mizzell managed 95 yards and a score on 12 carries. Olamide Zaccheaus logged three receptions for 83 yards and a TD to lead the Cavaliers in receiving. 

On the year so far, Benkert is 139-of-243 for 1733 yards and a 14:7 TD:INT ratio for Virginia. Mizzell is the Cavaliers’ lead rusher on 64 carries for 355 yards and three scores, while Zaccheaus heads the receivers with 29 grabs for 423 yards and five TDs. 

The under is 5-0 in North Carolina's last five October games, and they're also 1-5 ATS in their last six road games versus a team with a winning home record. North Carolina is also 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. 

Meanwhile, Virginia is 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game, and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up loss. Virginia is also 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. 

The Tar Heels have posted at least 20 points in all five of their wins this year, but they do allow a lot of points. North Carolina has given up at least 23 points in six of seven games, which doesn’t say much about their defense. As for Virginia, they’ve managed at least 20 points in five of their six games, but have given up at least 20 points in five of six as well. All of that makes me think this is going to be a high-scoring game, and I trust the Tar Heels offense more than I do Virginia’s. I’ll take North Carolina here.

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