Arkansas State vs. Louisiana-Monroe - 10/29/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (2-5) at Arkansas State Red Wolves (2-4)
College Football: Saturday, October 29, 2016 at 7:00 pm (Centennial Bank Stadium)
The Line: Arkansas State Red Wolves -17 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
TV: ESPN 3
The Louisiana Monroe Warhawks will travel to Centennial Bank Stadium to take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves this Saturday night in College Football action.
The Louisiana Monroe Warhawks dropped to 2-5 (1-2 Sun Belt) on the season after being defeated by the New Mexico Lobos, 59-17, this past Saturday. Louisiana Monroe had no answers when it came to stopping the New Mexico rushing attacked and couldn’t fight back after finding themselves down by a 28-0 margin after the 1st quarter. Louisiana Monroe was outgained by New Mexico by a 622-235 margin and allowed the Lobos to gain 476 rushing yards. Leading the way for the Warhawks was QB Caleb Evans who completed 12 of 15 passes for 120 yards, TD, and an INT. On the season, Louisiana Monroe is averaging 24.4 ppg on 388.4 total yards per game (214.7 passing, 173.7 rushing). Offensively, the Warhawks have been led by RB Ben Luckett who has 4 TD’s and is averaging 52.0 yds/g on 13.9 att/g. Louisiana Monroe lost their starting QB Garrett Smith (57.5 comp %, 1237 yards, 9 TD, 7 INT) to the season due to injury and although QB Will Worth played well in his 1st appearance against Texas State, had to be replaced by Caleb Evans after starting the game 0-7 with an INT. RJ Turner (2.6 rec/g, 47.4 yds/g, 2 TD), Xavier Brown (2.4 rec/g, 42.6 yds/g, 3 TD), and Marcus Green (3.4 rec/g, 37.1 yds/g, 3 TD) are the leading receivers for the Warhawks. Defensively, Louisiana Monroe is allowing their opponents to average 41.1 ppg on 501.6 total yards per game (198.3 passing, 303.3 rushing). The Warhawks have committed 15 turnovers on the season and have an overall turnover margin of -5.
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The Arkansas State Red Wolves won their 2nd straight game and improved to 2-4 (2-0 Sun Belt) on the season after defeating the South Alabama Jaguars, 17-7, on October 15th. Arkansas State got an outstanding performance from their defense and was able to hang on for the victory after taking a 14-0 lead at halftime. The Red Wolves outgained the Jaguars by a 297-255 margin and won the turnover battle by a 2-1 margin. Leading the way for Arkansas State was RB Warren Wand who had 88 rushing yards on 18 carries. On the season, Arkansas State is averaging 18.5 ppg on 373.3 total yards per game (228.3 passing, 145.0 rushing). Offensively, the Red Wolves have been led by the rushing duo of Warren Wand (15.8 att/g, 76.0 yds/g, 2 TD) and Johnston White (9.0 att/g, 41.4 yds/g, TD). QB Justice Hansen has completed 59.6% of his passes for 6 TD and 6 INT while averaging 170.2 passing yds/game. TE Blake Mack (4.0 rec/g, 71.3 yds/g), WR Cam Echols-Luper (2.0 rec/g, 36.8 yds/g, TD), WR Chris Murray (1.4 rec/g, 31.4 yds/g), and WR Kendall Sanders (1.8 rec/g, 23.5 yds/g, TD) have been the leading receivers for the Red Wolves. Defensively, Arkansas State is allowing their opponents to average 29.5 ppg on 433.0 total yards per game (236.3 passing, 196.7 rushing). Arkansas State has committed 13 turnovers on the season and has an overall turnover margin of -7.
The Warhawks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 conference games and 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games in October. The Red Wolves are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.
Louisiana Monroe could be in some real trouble for the rest of the season as the offensive currently seems lost without QB Garrett Smith in the lineup and the defense comes into this matchup ranked 123rd in the country in terms of scoring defense. Arkansas State had a rough start to their year as they had a difficult out of conference schedule (Toledo, @ Auburn, @ Utah State) and will have to continue to rely on their defense as Red Wolves currently have the 124th ranked scoring offense. This is a lot of points for Arkansas State to cover however, after watching New Mexico have their way with Warhawks defense, I think Arkansas State will be able to do enough in front of the home crowd to cover this large spread. Take Arkansas State to cover.