Colorado State vs. Fresno State - 11/5/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Fresno State Bulldogs (1-8) at Colorado State Rams (4-4)
College Football: Saturday, November 5, 2016 at 3:30 pm (Hughes Stadium)
The Line: Colorado State Rams -14.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
TV: Root Sports; Campus Insiders
The Fresno State Bulldogs will travel to Hughes Stadium (CO) to take on the Colorado State Rams this Saturday afternoon in College Football action.
The Fresno State Bulldogs lost their 7th straight game and dropped to 1-8 (0-5 MW) on the season after being defeated by the Air Force Falcons, 31-21, this past Saturday. Fresno State played Air Force tough and actually entered the 4th quarter with a 21-17 lead, however, couldn’t secure the victory after allowing the Falcons to take the lead with just 2:34 left to play. Fresno State was outgained by Air Force by a 424-349 margin and lost the turnover battle by a 4-1 margin. Leading the way for the Bulldogs was WR KeeSean Johnson who had 3 TD’s and 142 yards on 10 receptions. On the season, Fresno State is averaging 20.6 ppg on 350.2 total yards per game (238.3 passing, 111.9 rushing). Offensviely, the Bulldogs are led by QB Chason Virgil who has completed 51.4% of his passes for 13 TD and 10 INT while averaging 223.7 passing yds/game. Virgil’s main targets for the Bulldogs has been KeeSean Johnson (6.7 rec/g, 73.2 yds/g, 6 TD), Jamire Jordan (4.3 rec/g, 70.7 yds/g, 2 TD), and Aaron Peck (4.4 rec/g, 65.9 yds/g, 3 TD). Dontel James has been the main weapon in the Bulldogs backfield as he has 4 TD’s on the season while averaging 67.3 rushing yds/game. Defensively, Fresno State is allowing their opponents to average 33.8 ppg on 431 total yards per game (159.3 passing, 271.7 rushing). Fresno State has committed 16 turnovers on the season and has an overall turnover margin of -10.
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The Colorado State Rams improved to 4-4 (2-2 MW) on the season after defeating the UNLV Rebels, 42-23, on October 22nd. Colorado State jumped all over UNLV early in this one and had little trouble securing the victory after taking a 35-0 halftime lead. Colorado State outgained UNLV by a 467-360 margin and won the turnover battle by a 2-1 margin. Leading the way for the Rams was QB Nick Stevens who completed 21 of 28 passes for 237 yards and 2 TD’s. On the season, Colorado State is averaging 26.8 ppg on 409.5 total yards per game (217.8 passing, 191.8 rushing). Offensively, QB Nick Stevens is back under center after the Rams loss freshman QB Colon Hill for the season. In his 5 games this season, Stevens has completed 55.2% of his passes for 4 TD and 2 INT while averaging 100.6 passing yds/game. Colorado State has the 49th ranked rushing offense in the country led by Dalyn Dawkins (13.7 att/g, 65.6 yds/g, TD), Izzy Matthews (11.4 att/g, 48.3 yds/g, 6 TD), and Marvin Kinsey (6.9 att/g, 33.1 yds/g, 4 TD). Michael Gallup (4.5 rec/g, 71.3 yds/g, 5 TD) and Olabisi Johnson (1.9 rec/g, 30.1 yds/g, 2 TD) have been the biggest threats at the receiver position for the Rams. Defensively, Colorado State is allowing their opponents to average 27.9 ppg on 417.5 total yards per game (228.0 passing, 189.5 rushing). Colorado State has forced just 9 turnovers on the season and has an overall turnover margin of -1.
The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. The Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Fresno State has had a tough year however, there was some reason for optimism as the Bulldogs played tough in their 1st game under head-coach Eric Kiesau who replaced Tim DeRuyter who was let go after the Bulldogs 1-6 start. Colorado State has played better as of late however, will need to get some more production out of QB Nick Stevens as the Rams have just the 80th ranked passing offense in the country. Playing at Colorado State will be a challenge, but as I think Chason Virgil will be able to do some damage against the Rams 68th ranked passing defense, I think the Bulldogs can do enough to cover with the points as long as they limit their turnovers. I’m taking Fresno State and the points.