SMU vs. Memphis - 11/5/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Memphis Tigers (5-3) at SMU Mustangs (4-4)
College Football: Saturday, November 5, 2016 at 4:00 pm (Gerald J. Ford Stadium)
The Line: SMU Mustangs +3.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
TV: ESPN News
The Memphis Tigers will travel to Gerald J. Ford Stadium to take on the SMU Mustangs this Saturday afternoon in College Football action.
The Memphis Tigers lost their 2nd straight game and fell to 5-3 (2-2 AAC) on the season after being defeating by the Tulsa Golden Hurricane, 59-30, this past Saturday. Memphis had no answers for the Golden Hurricane offense in this one and couldn’t fight back into it after falling behind by a 45-30 margin late in the 3rd quarter. Memphis was outgained by Tulsa by a 596-508 margin and lost the turnover battle by a 4-1 margin. Leading the way for Memphis was WR Anthony Miller who had 2 TD’s and 250 yards on 12 receptions. On the season, Memphis is averaging 37.4 ppg on 446.1 total yards per game (290.8 passing, 155.4 rushing). Offensively, Memphis has been led by QB Riley Ferguson who has completed 62.5% of his passes for 17 TD and 8 INT while averaging 284.8 passing yds/game. Ferguson’s main targets at the receiver position have been Anthony Miller (6.6 rec/g, 102.8 yds/g, 5 TD), Phil Mayhue (3.5 rec/g, 52.6 yds/g, 2 TD), Daniel Hurd (1.9 rec/g, 23.9 yds/g, TD), and Tony Pollard (2.0 rec/g, 19.1 yds/g, TD). Memphis has multiple options out of the backfield and have been led by Doroland Dorceus (9.4 att/g, 60.3 yds/g, 5 TD), Patrick Taylor Jr (6.8 att/g, 44.0 yds/g, 2 TD), and Darrell Henderson (5.9 att/g, 39.1 yds/g, 3 TD). Defensively, Memphis is allowing their opponents to average 27.1 ppg on 432.1 total yards per game (226.0 passing, 206.1 rushing). Memphis has forced 20 turnovers on the season and has an overall turnover margin of +4.
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The SMU Mustangs were able to follow up their shocking upset of Houston with a 35-31 victory over the Tulane Green Wave and improved to 4-4 (2-2 AAC) on the season. SMU allowed Tulane to fight back into the game after taking a 21-10 lead at halftime, however, got two 1-yard TD runs by Braeden West late in the 4th quarter to secure the victory. SMU outgained Tulane by a 439-391 margin however, did lose the turnover battle by a 2-1 margin. Leading the way for the Mustangs was WR James Proche who had 2 TD’s and 164 yards on just 6 receptions. On the season, SMU is averaging 26.5 ppg on 417.1 total yards per game (246.1 passing, 171.0 rushing). Offensively, SMU has been led by the strong receiving core of Courtland Sutton (4.9 rec/g, 87.3 yds/g, 5 TD), James Proche (5.1 rec/g, 68.5 yds/g, 4 TD), and Jeremiah Gaines (1.1 rec/g, 13.9 yds/g, 3 TD). QB Ben Hicks has completed 51.8% of his passes for 11 TD and 11 INT while averaging 226.8 passing yds/game. The Mustangs rushing attack has been led by Braeden West (17.1 att/g, 94.4 yds/g, 6 TD), Ke’Mon Freeman (10.9 att/g, 43.8 yds/g, 2 TD), and Xavier Jones (7.5 att/g, 70.0 yds/g, TD). Defensively, SMU is allowing their opponents to average 30.4 ppg on 427.9 total yards per game (247.9 passing, 180.0 rushing). SMU has forced 18 turnovers on the season and has an overall turnover margin of +2.
The Tigers are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games in November however, are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Mustangs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Memphis comes into this game with a solid 5-3 record, however, the Tigers record is one of the more misleading records in College Football as their only quality win has come against Temple and their three losses, which have come against Ole Miss, Navy, and Tulsa, have come by an average of 21 points. SMU didn’t suffer a letdown after their upset at home against Houston and although SMU comes in with just the 88th ranked scoring defense, the Mustangs have been solid on the offensive end and have a 2-1 record at home. This game has all the making to be a high-scoring shootout, however, as I just don’t have any confidence in this Memphis team, I think as long as SMU and Ben Hicks can limit the turnovers, that the Mustangs continue their winning ways and pick up the win at home. I’m taking SMU on the M/L in this one.