Wisconsin Badgers at Northwestern Wildcats - 11/5/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Wisconsin Badgers (6-2) at Northwestern Wildcats (4-4)
College Football: Saturday, November 5, 2016 at 12:00 pm (Ryan Field)
The Line: Northwestern Wildcats +6.5 -- Over/Under: 41 See the Latest Odds
Heading our way on Saturday in Week 10 college football action from the Big 10, the Wisconsin Badgers will be visiting the Northwestern Wildcats at Ryan Field in Evanston.
Wisconsin enters this game ranked No. 8 with a 6-2 record on the season, following a 23-17 overtime victory over Nebraska in their last outing. In that one, Dare Ogunbowale scored on an 11-yard run in the extra period, followed by a big stop in the end zone to seal the Badgers’ victory. Ogunbowale would finish with 11 carries for 120 yards for Wisconsin, while QB Alex Hornibrook posted a 10-of-16 line for 71 yards, a TD and a pick.
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So far this season for the Badgers, Hornibrook is 75-of-131 for 948 yards and a 6:7 TD:INT ratio, while Corey Clement sits atop the rushers on 161 carries for 699 yards and six touchdowns. Jazz Peavy is Wisconsin’s lead receiver on 27 catches for 408 yards and three scores.
Over on the Northwestern side, they’ve improved as the year has gone on at 4-4, but did drop their last game 24-20 at Ohio State. The Wildcats gave up two key third-down conversions on the Buckeyes’ final drive, which sealed the loss. Northwestern QB Clayton Thorson finished with a 22-of-42 line for 256 yards, a TD and a pick, while Justin Jackson headed up the rush with 17 carries for 76 yards. Austin Carr had a nice day for Northwestern through the air, with eight grabs for 158 yards in all.
On the year so far for the Wildcats, Thorson is 165-of-289 for 1942 yards and a 15:6 TD:INT mark. Jackson leads Northwestern on the ground with 188 carries for 868 yards and six touchdowns, while Carr is tops in the receiving game on 58 catches for 878 yards and nine scores.
Wisconsin is 4-0 ATS in their last four road games, and 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games. Wisconsin is also 5-1 ATS in their last six games on grass, and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
As for Northwestern, they’re 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games, and 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Northwestern is also 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in November, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a straight-up loss.
Hornibrook will draw the start for Wisconsin here, but he’ll be on a short leash and doesn’t inspire much confidence anyway. That leaves the heavy lifting to Clement and the Badgers defense, who should be able to put up a solid game. That said, Wisconsin’s last four games have been decided by eight points or fewer, so they’re definitely ripe for an upset—or at least another close game. I see this as a pretty low-scoring affair, with Northwestern covering and even being able to flirt with a victory—but likely coming up short.