Air Force vs. Colorado State - 11/12/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Colorado State Rams (5-4) at Air Force Falcons (6-3)
College Football: Saturday, November 12, 2016 at 10:15 pm (Falcon Stadium)
The Line: Air Force Falcons -4 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
TV: ESPN U
The Colorado State Rams will travel to Falcon Stadium to take on the Air Force Falcons this Saturday night in College Football action.
The Colorado State Rams won their 2nd straight game and improved to 5-4 (3-2 MW) on the season after defeating the Fresno State Bulldogs, 37-0, this past Saturday. Colorado State had their best defensive game of the season and had no problems putting away the Bulldogs after taking a 23-0 lead at halftime. Colorado State outgained Fresno State by a 494-232 margin and won the turnover battle by a 1-0 margin. Leading the way for the Rams was WR Michael Gallup who had a TD and 126 receiving yards on 9 receptions. On the season, Colorado State is averaging 27.9 ppg on 418.9 total yards per game (219.9 passing, 199.0 rushing). Offensively, the Rams have been led by their solid rushing attack that consists of Dalyn Dawkins (13.3 att/g, 61.8 yds/g, TD), Izzy Matthews (11.2 att/g, 49.0 yds/g, 8 TD), and Marvin Kinsey, Jr. (7.2 att/g, 38.7 yds/g, 5 TD). QB Nick Stevens, who regained his starting QB job after Collin Hill was lost for the season due to injury, has completed 60.0% of his passes for 6 TD and 2 INT while averaging 123.3 passing yds/game. Michael Gallup (5.0 rec/g, 77.3 yds/g, 6 TD) and Olabisi Johnson (1.9 rec/g, 28.0 yds/g, 2 TD) have been the biggest WR threats for the Rams. Defensively, Colorado State is holding their opponents to an average of 24.8 ppg on 396.9 total yards per game (219.9 passing, 177.0 rushing). Colorado State has only forced their opponents to commit 10 turnovers on the season however, the Rams do have an overall turnover margin of 0.
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The Air Force Falcons improved to 6-3 (2-3 MW) on the season after defeating the Army Black Knights, 31-12, this past Saturday. Air Force did a nice job slowing down the Army’s rushing attack and was able to pull away in the 2nd half after a late 3rd quarter TD put the Falcons up 24-12. Air Force outgained Army by a 444-228 margin and won the turnover battle by a 2-1 margin. Leading the way for Air Force was QB Arion Worthman who completed 6 of 9 passes for 195 yards and a TD while also adding a TD and 63 yards on the ground. On the season, Air Force is averaging 32.8 ppg on 448.2 total yards per game (157.6 passing, 290.7 rushing). Offensviely, Air Force is led by their rushing attack that ranks 5th in the country in rushing yds/game. Leading the way for the Falcons rushing attack has been RB Jacobi Owens (10.4 att/g, 67.9 yds/g, 3 TD), RB D.J. Johnson (13.3 att/g, 58.6 yds/g), RB Shayne Davern (10.9 att/g, 43.6 yds/g, 3 TD), RB Timothy McVey (5.3 att/g, 37.0 yds/g, 6 TD), and QB Arion Worthman (9.75 att/g, 41.3 yds/g, 3 TD). QB Arion Worthman, who just recently replaced QB Nate Romine, has completed just 7 of 10 passes on the season for 212 passing yards and 2 TD. Jalen Robinette (3.0 rec/g, 80.7 yds/g, 4 TD), Timothy McVey (0.7 rec/g, 19.6 yds/g, 2 TD), and Ryan Reffitt (0.8 rec/g, 18.4 yds/g, 2 TD) are the main targets at the receiver position for the Falcons. Defensively, Air Force is holding their opponents to an average of 24.0 ppg on 336.6 total yards per game (222.1 passing, 114.4 rushing). Air Force has forced 14 turnovers on the season and has an overall turnover margin of +2.
The Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November however, are 0-4 in their last 4 conference games.
Colorado State has really turned a corner over the last month as since their loss at home against Wyoming, the Rams are 3-1 and are averaging 33.3 ppg. Air Force is known for their solid rushing attack however, the Falcons are also one of the best at the stopping the run as their rushing defense currently ranks 14th in the country. Air Force had some quality wins this season (Navy, Army), however, the Falcons have struggled against Mountain West this season which includes a home loss to Hawai'i. Colorado State has been playing their best football of the season as of late and as long as QB Nick Stevens can do some damage through the air, I think the Rams will keep this one close enough to cover with the points. Take Colorado State and the points.