Boise State vs. UNLV - 11/18/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
UNLV Rebels (4-6) at Boise State Broncos (9-1)
College Football: Friday, November 18, 2016 at 9:00 pm (Albertsons Stadium)
The Line: Boise State Broncos -27.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
TV: ESPN 2
The UNLV Rebels will travel to Albertsons Stadium to take on the 22nd ranked Boise State Broncos this Friday night in College Football action.
The UNLV Rebels snapped their 2-game losing streak and improved to 4-6 (3-3 MW) on the season after upsetting the Wyoming Cowboys, 69-66 (3-OT), this past Saturday. In an exciting back and forth game UNLV was able to pick of Wyoming’s Josh Allen in opening possession of the third OT which set up the Rebels game winning 40-yard FG. UNLV outgained Wyoming by a 654-485 margin and won the turnover battle by a 4-1 margin. Leading the way for UNLV was QB Kurt Palandech who completed 20 of 32 passes for 252 yards and 3 TD’s while also rushing for 158 yards and a TD. On the season, UNLV is averaging 34.4 ppg on 424.9 total yards per game (172.1 passing, 252.8 rushing). Offensively, the Rebels have been led by the rushing duo of Charles Williams (11.5 att/g, 66.5 yds/g 3 TD) and Lexington Thomas (13.33 att/g, 70.22 yds/g, 8 TD). QB Kurt Palandech, who has just recently taken over the starting QB duties for the Rebels, has completed 30 of 55 passes on the season for 413 yards, 4 TD’s, and an INT. Devonte Boyd (4.5 rec/g, 74.6 yds/g, 4 TD), Darren Woods Jr. (2.2 rec/g, 31.5 yds/g, TD), and Andrew Price (1.3 rec/g, 16.6 yds/g, 2 TD) are the leading receivers for the Rebels. Defensively, UNLV is allowing their opponents to average 35.4 ppg on 427.0 total yards per game (261.6 passing, 165.4 rushing).
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The 22nd ranked Boise State Broncos won their 2nd straight game and improved to 9-1 (5-1 MW) on the season after defeating the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors, 52-16, this past Saturday. Boise State had no trouble putting Hawai’i away early in this one as the Broncos stormed out to a 35-3 halftime lead. Boise State outgained Hawai’i by a 603-359 margin and won the turnover battle by a 2-0 margin. Leading the way for Boise State was QB Brett Rypien who completed 18 of 22 passes for 338 yards and 4 TD. On the season, Boise State is averaging 36.5 ppg on 497.8 total yards per game (314.8 passing, 183.0 rushing). Offensively, the Broncos are led by RB Jeremy McNichols who had 18 rushing TD’s on the season and is averaging 136.9 rushing yds/g. QB Brett Rypien has completed 60.5% of his passes for 22 TD and 6 INT while averaging 291.6 passing yds/g. Thomas Sperbeck (6.2 rec/g, 102.3 yds/g, 9 TD), Cedrick Wilson (4.4 rec/g, 82.7 yds/g, 9 TD), and Jeremy McNichols (3.1 rec/g, 42.8 yds/g, 4 TD) are the biggest receiving threats for Boise State. Defensively, Boise State is holding their opponents to an average of 22.0 ppg on 389.1 total yards per game (223.6 passing, 165.5 rushing).
The Rebels are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record however, just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. The Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
UNLV did Boise State a huge favor last week with their upset victory over Wyoming, however, if the Rebels are going to have any chance in this one, they’ll need to find some answers on the defensive end as UNLV ranks 110th in scoring defense. Boise State showed how dangerous a team they can be in the recent game against Hawaii however, even with great offensive weapons in Jeremy McNichols, Brett Rypien, and Thomas Sperbeck, the Broncos average margin of victory at home this season is just at 6.8 ppg. UNLV is going to have trouble stopping the Broncos from scoring the football, however, as I really liked what I saw out of Rebels QB Kurt Palandech in their game against Wyoming and for the fact that Boise State has had trouble covering these big spreads at home all season, I'm going to roll with UNLV and the points in this one.