SMU vs. Navy - 11/26/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Navy Midshipmen (8-2) at SMU Mustangs (5-6)
College Football: Saturday, November 26, 2016 at 3:30 pm (Gerald J. Ford Stadium)
The Line: SMU Mustangs +8 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
TV: ESPN U
The Navy Midshipman will travel to Gerald J. Ford Stadium to take on the SMU Mustangs this Saturday afternoon in College Football action.
The Navy Midshipmen won their 3rd straight game and improved to 8-2 (6-1 AAC) on the season after defeating the East Carolina Pirates, 66-31, this past Saturday. Navy was down by a 17-7 margin early in the is one however, the Midshipmen scored 31 unanswered points and easily secured the victory. Navy outgained East Carolina by a 593-414 margin and won the turnover battle by a 1-0 margin. Leading the way for the Midshipmen was QB Will Worth who rushed for 159 yards and 4 TD’s while completing 3 of 5 passes for 113 passing yards. On the season, Navy is averaging 38.4 ppg on 457.0 total yards per game (130.4 passing, 326.6 rushing). Offensively, Navy is led by the 3rd ranked rushing attack in College Football. Leading the way for the Midshipmen rushing attack has been QB Will Worth (24.3 att/g, 107.4 yds/g, 22 TD), RB Chris High (8.9 att/g, 59.1 yds/g, 5 TD), RB Dishan Romine (4.1 att/g, 38.9 yds/g, TD), and Shawn White (6.1 att/g, 34.3 yds/g, 6 TD). QB Will Worth has completed 61.1% of his passes for 7 TD and 3 INT while averaging 125.9 passing yds/g. Jamir Tillman (3.1 rec/g, 52.5 yds/g, TD) and Darryl Bonner (0.9 rec/g, 21.5 yds/g, 2 TD) have been the leading receivers for Navy. Defensively, Navy is allowing their opponents to average 30.0 ppg on 441.3 total yards per game (258.3 passing, 183.0 rushing).
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The SMU Mustangs dropped to 5-6 (3-4 AAC) on the season after being defeated by the South Florida Bulls, 35-27, this past Saturday. SMU did a nice job of not letting the explosive South Florida offense open this game up, however, couldn’t get another score after making the contest a 1-possession game with just over 9 minutes left to go. SMU outgained South Florida by a 578-473 margin however, lost the turnover battle by a 3-2 margin. Leading the way for the Mustangs was WR Courtland Sutton who had 2 TD’s and 252 yards on 13 receptions. On the season, SMU is averaging 27.4 ppg on 427.3 total yards per game (257.9 passing, 169.4 rushing). Offensively, SMU has been led by WR Courtland Sutton who had 9 TD’s on the season and is averaging 107.8 yds/g on 6.4 rec/g. QB Ben Hicks has completed 53.7% of his passes for 17 TD and 13 INT while averaging 326.3 passing yds/g. Leading the way for the Mustangs backfield has been Braeden West (17.3 att/g, 89.8 yds/g, 6 TD) and Ke’Mon Freeman (12.4 att/g, 53.9 yds/g, 3 TD). Besides Courtland Sutton, the Mustangs receivers have been led by James Proche (4.6 rec/g, 60.0 yds/g, 6 TD) and Xavier Castille (2.9 rec/g, 30.6 yds/g). Defensively, SMU is allowing their opponents to average 32.7 ppg on 439.6 total yards per game (255.1 passing, 184.5 rushing).
The Midshipmen are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games in November and 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 conference games. The Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Navy has one of the best rushing attacks in the country, however, as the Midshipmen clinched their division and a spot in the AAC Championship, it will be interesting to see the effort that Navy brings to this matchup. SMU comes into this matchup needing a win to become bowl eligible and although it’s tough to trust the Mustangs defense against the Navy rushing attack, I think SMU’s passing attack will be able to do enough damage for the Mustangs to cover with the points.