Vanderbilt vs. NC State - 12/26/16 College Football Independence Bowl Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Vanderbilt vs. NC State - 12/26/16 College Football Independence Bowl Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by USA TODAY Sports

NC State Wolfpack (6-6) at Vanderbilt Commodores (5-6)

College Football: Monday, December 26, 2016 at 5:00 pm (Independence Stadium)

The Line: Vanderbilt Commodores +4 -- Over/Under: 42.5 Click to Get Latest Betting Odds

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Coming up in college football activity on Monday, December 26, we’ve got the Camping World Independence Bowl from Independence Stadium in Shreveport, Louisiana between the North Carolina State Wolfpack and the Vanderbilt Commodores. 

North Carolina State limps in here with a 6-6 record, dropping five of their last seven games. The Wolfpack’s last game was a 28-21 win over North Carolina, however, and secured their bowl eligibility. In that one, NC State RB Matthew Dayes logged 26 carries for 104 yards and a pair of touchdowns. 

On the year for the Wolfpack, QB Ryan Finley holds 2820 yards with 15 touchdowns and eight picks, while Dayes sits on 240 carries for 1119 yards and 10 scores. Stephen Louis is North Carolina State’s top receiver on 33 catches for 657 yards and two TDs. 

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Over on the Vanderbilt side, they’re sitting on a 6-6 record this year as well, but won four of their last six outings. The Commodores’ most recent win came in an upset against Tennessee, with QB Kyle Shurmur tossing 416 yards and a pair of touchdowns. 

On the season for the Commodores, Shurmur has 2251 yards with nine touchdowns and seven interceptions, while Ralph Webb leads the team in rushing on 229 carries for 1172 yards and 12 scores. Trent Sherfield is the top Vanderbilt receiver with 31 catches for 448 yards and one TD. 

North Carolina State is 0-5 ATS in their last five against the SEC, and the over is 5-0-1 in the Wolfpack’s last six games after posting more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. The over is 4-0 in North Carolina State’s last four bowl games, and the Wolfpack are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight bowl games. 

Meanwhile, Vanderbilt is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win, and 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog. The under is 3-0-1 in the Commodores’ last four games on grass, and the over is 3-0-1 in the Commodores’ last four versus the ACC. 

Vanderbilt hit a nice run to end the season, but it’s likely too good to be true. The Commodores’ passing attack is pretty limp, and the team lacks a go-to receiver who can get into the end zone. It’s going to be a heavy dose of Webb for Vanderbilt in this one, and I don’t think that will be enough to get them past North Carolina State. I’ll take the Wolfpack here.

See Who The Experts Picked To Win This One

Andrew’s Pick North Carolina State Wolfpack -4

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Sports Chat Place site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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