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Cactus Bowl: Boise State vs. Baylor - 12/27/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Baylor Bears (6-6) at Boise State Broncos (10-2)

College Football: Tuesday, December 27, 2016 at 10:15 pm (Chase Field)

The Line: Boise State Broncos -7.5 -- Over/Under: 66.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: ESPN

The Boise State Broncos take the field in the Cactus Bowl against the Baylor Bears in college football.

The Boise State Broncos might not be the National Championship threat they once were but a 10-2 record is nothing to sneeze at. The Broncos finished 2016 on a seven game winning streak with quality performances on both sides of the ball. The Broncos averaged 480 yards and nearly 36 points with the #16 passing attack leading the way while the defense gave up 379 yards and around 23 points with less then 200 yards passing given up. BSU quarterback Brett Rypien threw for over 3,300 yards on 61.8% with 1,000+ yard receivers Thomas Sperbeck and Cedrick Wilson leading the way. Jeremy McNichols was the Broncos workhorse on the ground with 1,663 yards on 295 carries and 23 touchdowns.

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Cactus Bowl: Boise State vs. Baylor - 12/27/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

Many believe the Baylor Bears had packed things in after starting the year 0-6 but the team turned things around with a six game winning streak to end the regular season and reach a Bowl. The Bears have been known for their scoring ability and that hasn’t changed with 35 points scored on 523 yards with equal ability to run and throw while the defense allowed 30 points on 434 yards although this side of the ball wasn’t real strong against anything. Baylor quarterback Seth Russell threw for 2,126 yards before injury ended his year which put Zach Smith in the spotlight with his 1,151 passing yards. KD Cannon was the top pass catcher with 989 yar0ds followed by Ishmael Zamora totaling 786 yards. Terence Williams was Baylor’s top option on the ground with 940 yards  followed by Shock Linwood with 751 yards  while JaMycal Hasty added almost 600 yards.

The under is 4-0 in Boise State last 4 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game and the over is 6-1 in Boise State last 7 games on grass while Boise State  are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Baylor are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win and Baylor are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game while the over is 10-1 in Bears last 11 neutral site games.

This looks tricky with Boise State bringing the complete package but the way the Bears finished the season leaves me uneasy…

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