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Florida State vs. Michigan: Orange Bowl - 12/30/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Michigan Wolverines (10-2) at Florida State Seminoles (9-3)

College Football: Friday, December 30, 2016 at 8:00 pm (Hard Rock Stadium)

The Line: Florida State Seminoles +6.5 -- Over/Under: 58 See the Latest Odds

TV: ESPN

We’ve got a good matchup in the Capital One Orange Bowl on Friday, December 30 this year, as the Michigan Wolverines and the Florida State Seminoles lock horns at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens for college football glory. 

Florida State enters play here with a 9-3 record on the season, winning their last four games and six of their last seven. The Seminoles’ most recent win came against Florida in a 31-13 rout. In that game, Florida State RB Dalvin Cook ripped off 26 carries for 153 yards and a TD, cementing himself as the school’s all-time rushing touchdown and rushing yards leader. 

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Florida State vs. Michigan: Orange Bowl - 12/30/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

On the season, Seminoles QB Deondre Francois sits on 3128 yards with 18 touchdowns and six picks, while Cook is the unquestioned man on the ground with 1620 yards and 18 scores on 268 carries. Travis Rudolph is Florida State’s receiving leader on 53 catches for 807 yards and seven touchdowns. 

Over on the Michigan side, they’re entering the Orange Bowl with a 10-2 record, suffering both losses in the final three games after a 9-0 start. The Wolverines dropped a heartbreaker in their last game against Ohio State 30-27 in two overtimes. Michigan totaled a fairly tepid 91 rushing yards in that defeat, while QB Wilton Speight tossed a pair of picks. 

On the year, Speight has 2375 yards with 17 touchdowns and six interceptions, while De’Veon Smith leads Michigan on the ground with 165 carries for 810 yards and 10 touchdowns. Amara Darboh is tops for the Wolverines through the air, with 52 catches for 826 yards and seven scores. 

Florida State is 4-0 ATS in their last four Friday games, and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 bowl games. Florida State is also 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games, and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. 

Meanwhile, Michigan is 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a straight-up loss, and 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games. Michigan is also 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on grass, and the over is 7-2 in the Wolverines’ last nine bowl games. 

The sting of their finale loss is going to haunt Michigan for a long time, but at least their defense has something to concentrate on: stop Dalvin Cook. It’s a concept that’s easier said than done, but with the Wolverines loading the box all night I doubt he’ll find a lot of room. This should be a fairly low-scoring game with neither offense doing much to impress. I think Michigan will win, but I’ll take the Seminoles to cover and keep it close.

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