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Boise State vs. New Mexico - 9/14/17 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

New Mexico Lobos (1-1) at Boise State Broncos (1-1)

College Football: Thursday, September 14, 2017 at 8:00 pm (Albertsons Stadium)

The Line: Boise State Broncos -17.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: ESPN

The New Mexico Lobos will travel to Albertsons Stadium to take on the Boise State Broncos this Thursday night in College Football action.

The New Mexico Lobos fell to 1-1 on the season after being defeated by the New Mexico State Aggies, 30-28, this past Saturday. New Mexico made a strong comeback after trailing by a 30-5 margin entering the 4th quarter, however, came up just short after their 2-point conversation failed with just over a minute left in regulation. The Lobos were outgained by the Aggies by a 500-430 margin and lost the turnover battle by a 4-2 difference. Leading the way for New Mexico was QB Tevaka Tuioti was completed 10 of 19 passes for 151 yards and 2 TD. On the season, New Mexico is averaging 33.0 ppg on 455.5 total yards per game (238.0 passing yds/g; 217.5 rushing yds/g). Offensively, New Mexico has been led by their backfield duo of Daryl Chestnut (6.5 att/g, 54.0 yds/g, 2 TD) and Tyrone Owens (8.5 att/g, 37.0 yds/g, TD). QB Lamar Jordan has struggled to the season (58.3 comp %; 158.0 yds/g; TD, 2 INT), and his starting job might be in jeopardy after Tevaka Tuioti almost led the Lobos back in their recent game against New Mexico State. The main targets for the Lobos at the WR position have been Chris Davis Jr. (5.5 rec/g, 68.0 yds/g, TD), Jay Griffin IV (3.5 rec/g, 65.5 yds/g, 2 TD), and Delane Hart-Johnson (2.5 rec/g, 59.5 yds/g). Defensively, New Mexico is holding their opponents to an average of 22.0 ppg on 391.0 total yards per game (337.5 passing yds/g; 53.5 rushing yds/g).

Boise State vs. New Mexico - 9/14/17 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

The Boise State Broncos fell to 1-1 on the season after being defeated by the Washington State Cougars 47-44, in a 3OT thriller this past Saturday. Boise State held a 21-point lead midway through the 4th quarter but couldn’t hold onto the lead after the Cougars tied the game at 31 with just 1:44 left in regulation. Boise State were outgained by the Cougars by a 455-401 margin and lost the turnover battle by a 4-3 difference. Leading the for the Broncos was backup Quarterback Montell Cozart who went 12-20 with 161 yards passing, 2 TDs, while adding 72 yards and 1 TD on the ground, after starting QB Brett Rypien left the game early with an undisclosed injury. On the season, Boise State is averaging 34.0 ppg on 379.0 total yards per game (223.5 passing yds/g 155.5 rushing yds/g) Offensively, the Broncos have been led by receivers Cedrick Wilson (6.5 rec/g, 106 yds/g, 2 TD) and A.J Richardson (3.5 rec/g, 30.5 yds/g). QB Brett Rypien has completed 64.5% of his passes on the season for 0 TD and an INT while averaging 118.0 passing yds/g. The Broncos backfield is led by Alexander Mattison who has 2 TD’s on the season and is averaging 72.5 rushing yds/g on 13.5 att/g. Defensively, Boise State is holding their opponents to an average of 30.0 ppg on 335.0 total yards per game (286.0 passing yds/g; 49.0 rushing yds/g).

The Lobos are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss however, are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September however, just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games.

New Mexico finished last season with a 9-4 record which included a win at the New Mexico Bowl over the UTSA Roadrunners, however, the Lobos lost a lot of experience from last year’s team and has struggled early this season with turnovers. Boise State must be disappointed by letting a big road win slip through their fingers, however, the Broncos have to be encouraged by their performance without one of their key offensive players in Brett Rypien, who currently isn’t on the injury report for this game. New Mexico will have to decide whether Lamar Jordan or Tevaka Tuioti will get the start, however, as the Lobos no longer seem to have the same rushing attack as they did last season, I think Boise State will do enough on their home field to cover this spread. Take Boise State to cover. 

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