Arkansas vs. New Mexico State - 9/30/17 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
New Mexico State Aggies (2-2) at Arkansas Razorbacks (1-2)
College Football: Saturday, September 30, 2017 at 12:00 pm (Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium)
The Line: Arkansas Razorbacks -16.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
We have some inter-conference action on the gridiron in week 5 as the New Mexico State Aggies face off against the Arkansas Razorbacks from Fayetteville, Arkansas.
The New Mexico State Aggies will look to pull off the upset after evening up their record at 2-2 overall with a 41-14 win over UTEP to bring their Sun Belt conference record to 1-1 this season. Tyler Rogers led NMSU by going 26 of 43 passing, for 283 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception. Larry Rose III led the Aggies with 17 carries for 144 yards and a pair of rushing TDs while also hauling in a TD grab out of the backfield, catching 4 passes for 40 yards. Jaleel Scott also caught 4 passes for 74 yards of his own, while Conner Cramer also hauled in 4 balls for 51 yards and a touchdown. Defensively, the Aggies combined for 3 sacks and a whopping 5 interceptions, including 3 from Shamad Lomax who returned one INT back 19 yards for a pick-six as New Mexico State held UTEP to just 227 yards of total offense in the win.
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The Arkansas Razorbacks will try to rebound after back-to-back losses, including a heartbreaking 50-43 overtime loss to Texas A&M in their SEC opener, falling to 1-2 overall and 0-1 in SEC play this season. Austin Allen threw for 229 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception while Cole Kelley added a passing TD of his own. Chase Hayden ran for 77 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries, while David Williams racked up 68 rushing yards and a pair of ground scores and a receiving TD for the Hogs in the losing effort. Jonathan Nance led Arkansas with 3 catches for 100 yards and a touchdown, while Jared Cornelius added 3 grabs for 35 yards and a touchdown and Austin Cantrell put up 39 yards on 2 catches. On defense, an Austin Capps sack and a Henre’ Tolliver interception highlighted Arkansas’ defensive efforts that saw the Razorbacks allow over 500 yards of total offense, despite winning the time of possession battle by almost 6 minutes.
New Mexico State is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall while the over is 8-2 in their last 10 games against the SEC. Arkansas is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games while the over is 10-3 in their last 13 games against the Sun Belt.
If Arkansas had beat Texas A&M last week, I may lay the points with the Hogs here. However, New Mexico State has been a covering machine dating back to last season, and have done well out of conference, while Arkansas could treat this like a look-ahead game with South Carolina, Alabama and Auburn on the horizon. I think the Aggies could keep this closer than most think, or at the very least bag a backdoor cover, so I’ll take a shot with New Mexico State and the points.