New Mexico vs. Air Force - 9/30/17 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Air Force Falcons (1-2) at New Mexico Lobos (2-2)
College Football: Saturday, September 30, 2017 at 7:00 pm (University Stadium)
The Line: New Mexico Lobos +1 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
TV: CBS Sports Network
The Air Force Falcons will travel to Dreamstyle Stadium to take on the New Mexico Lobos this Saturday night in College Football action.
The Air Force Falcons dropped to 1-2 (0-1 MW) on the season after losing to the 20th ranked San Diego State Aztecs 28-24, this past Saturday. Air Force held the lead 3 times throughout the game, but was unable to secure the victory as San Diego State score the final go-ahead TD with 5:39 left in the 4th quarter. The Falcons were outgained by a 367-253 margin and both teams had 1 turnover during the game. Leading the way for Air Force was RB Parker Wilson who had 99 rushing yard on 20 carries. On the season, the Falcons are averaging 33.0 ppg on 382.7 total yards per game (95.7 passing yds/g; 287.0 rushing yds/g). Offensively, Air Force is led by their triple-option rushing attack that currently ranks 10th in the country in rushing offense. The Falcons rushing attack is led by RB Tim McVey (9.33 att/g, 68 yds/g, 2 TD), Parker Wilson (10.33 att/g, 56 yds/g), QB Arion Worthman (21.0 att/g, 51.7 yds/g, 2 TD), and WR Ronald Cleveland (2.0 att/g, 26.0 yds/g, 2 TD).QB Arion Worthman has completed 41.7% of his passes for 3 TD and 1 INT while averaging 79.3 passing yds/g. WR's Geraud Sanders (1 rec/g, 31 yds/g, 2 TD), Tim McVey (1 rec/g, 25.7 yds/g) and Ronald Cleveland (.03 att/g, 21.3 yds/g, TD) make the most out of limited opportunities in the passing game. Defensively, Air Force is holding their opponents to an average of 19.0 ppg on 273.7 total yards per game (129.7 passing yds/g; 144.0 rushing yds/g). The Falcons have forced 3 turnovers so far in the season and have an overall turnover margin of +1.
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The New Mexico Lobos (0-0 MW) improved to 2-2 on the season after defeating the Tulsa Golden Hurricane 16-13, this past Saturday. New Mexico and Tulsa played a tight back and forth game throughout that saw the Lobos kick a field goal for the win was time expired. The Lobos outgained the Golden Hurricane by a 446-286 margin and lost the turnover battle by a 3-1 difference. Leading the way for New Mexico was QB Coltin Gerhart who had 24 carries for 156 yards and a TD. On the Season, the Lobos are averaging 24.0 ppg on 408.5 total yards per game (165.8 passing yds/g; 242.8 rushing yds/g). Offensively, New Mexico also likes to do most of their damage on the ground and currently ranked 20th in the country in rushing offense. Leading the way for the Lobos rushing attack has been QB Coltin Gerhart (8.0 att/g, 51.3 yds/g, TD), Tyrone Owens (9.3 att/g, 40.8 yds/g, 2 TD) and Daryl Chestnut (5.5 att/g, 39.8 yds/g, 2 TD). QB Coltin Gerhart has completed 59.3% of his passes on the season for a TD and 2 INT while averaging 43.8 passing yards passing per game. The primary WR's for New Mexico are Chris Davis Jr. (4.3 rec/g, 54.5 yds/g, TD) and Jay Griffin IV (2.0 rec/g, 33.5 yds/g, 2 TD). Defensively, New Mexico is holding their opponents to an average of 21.3 ppg on 333.0 total yards per game (235.8 passing yds/g; 97.3 rushing yds/g). The Lobos have forced 6 turnovers so far in the season and have an overall turnover margin of –5.
The Falcons are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in September and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Lobos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game however, just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
If you like to watch teams run the football, make sure you don’t miss this game as Air Force and New Mexico are both run-heavy teams that combined for 624 rushing yards in New Mexico’s 45-40 victory last season. Air Force has looked competitive in both their games against Michigan and San Diego State, however, New Mexico has also shown with their victory at Tulsa along with their competitive game at Boise State, that they have enough talent to make it to a 3rd consecutive bowl game. I think this is going to be a good battle, however, as the New Mexico rush defense currently is ranked 16th in the country, along with the fact that this will be a home game for the Lobos, I’m leaning towards taking New Mexico.