Penn State vs. Michigan - 10/21/17 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Penn State vs. Michigan - 10/21/17 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by USA TODAY Sports

Michigan Wolverines (5-1) at Penn State Nittany Lions (6-0)

College Football: Saturday, October 21, 2017 at 7:30 pm (Beaver Stadium)

The Line: Penn State Nittany Lions -11 -- Over/Under: Click to Get Latest Betting Odds

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The Michigan Wolverines and Penn State Nittany Lions meet Saturday in college football action at Beaver Stadium on ABC.

The Michigan Wolverines look for their third road victory of the season to stay in the CFB playoff conversation. The Michigan Wolverines have won eight of their last 10 road games. John O'Korn is completing 54.9 percent of his passes for 563 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions. O'Korn has zero touchdown passes and three interceptions in his last two games. Grant Perry and Sean McKeon have combined for 405 receiving yards and one touchdown while Tarik Black has 11 receptions. The Michigan Wolverines ground game is averaging 185 yards per contest, and Ty Isaac leads the way with 403 yards and one touchdown. Defensively, Michigan is allowing 14.7 points and 223.8 yards per game. Devin Bush leads the Michigan Wolverines with 49 tackles, Chase Winovich has 5.5 sacks and Lavert Hill has two interceptions.  

The Penn State Nittany Lions look to improve to 7-0 on the season to remain one of the top national title contenders. The Penn State Nittany Lions haven’t lost a home game since November of 2015. Trace McSorley is completing 67 percent of his passes for 1,597 yards, 13 touchdowns and four interceptions. McSorley has two or more touchdown passes in 10 of his last 13 games. Saquon Barkley and DaeSean Hamilton have combined for 761 receiving yards and six touchdowns while Juwan Johnson has 24 receptions. The Penn State Nittany Lions ground game is averaging 165 yards per contest, and Barkley leads the way with 649 yards and six touchdowns. Defensively, Penn State is allowing nine points and 285.2 yards per game. Jason Cabinda leads the Penn State Nittany Lions with 40 tackles, Shaka Toney has three sacks and Amani Oruwariye has three interceptions.

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The Wolverines are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in October, 1-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Nittany Lions are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games in October, 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 home games and 13-1-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings, the home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings and the over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Michigan can't move the football or put points on the board with O'Korn at quarterback, and it's led to a loss to Michigan State and an overtime game against Indiana. Michigan is a combined 7-30 on third down in those two games, and it had just 58 passing yards last week. Penn State has had an extra week to prepare for this game and has won five of its six games by double digits. Not only is Penn State one of the top overall defenses in the country, but it's a top-25 defense against the run, which means Michigan has to make plays through the air if it hopes to compete in this game. I just don't see it. I like the Nittany Lions to open this game up and win by two touchdowns.

See Who The Experts Picked To Win This One

Randy’s Pick Penn State Nittany Lions -11

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Sports Chat Place site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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