Boise State vs. Air Force - 11/18/17 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Air Force Falcons (4-6) at Boise State Broncos (8-2)
College Football: Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 10:15 pm (Albertsons Stadium)
The Line: Boise State Broncos -17 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
TV: ESPN 2
The Air Force Falcons will travel to Albertsons Stadium to take on the Boise State Broncos this Saturday night in College Football action.
The Air Force Falcons dropped to 4-6 (3-3 MW) on the season after falling to the Wyoming Cowboys 28-14, this past Saturday. Air Force had no answer for the Wyoming offense which jumped out to an early 21-7 lead and never looked back. Air Force was outgained by Wyoming by a 368-229 margin and lost the turnover battle by a 3-1 margin. Leading the way for the Falcons was QB Aaron Worthman who completed 10 of 22 passes for 175 yards and 1 TD and 1 INT. On the season, Air Force is averaging 32.0 ppg on 426.8 total yards per game (117.3 passing yds/g, 309.5 rushing yds/g). Offensively, Air Force is led by their triple-option rushing attack which currently ranks 5th in the country in rushing offense. Leading the rushing attack has been RB Tim McVey (11.4 att/g, 68.4 yds/g, 6 TD), QB Arion Worthman (21.7 att/g, 82.1 yds/g, 13 TD), RB Parker Wilson (6.3 att/g, 28.6 yds/g), and WR Ronald Cleveland (3.9 att/g, 37.9 yds/g, 3 TD). QB Arion Worthman has completed 49.5% passes on the season for 10 TD and 4 INT while averaging 110.0 passing yds/g. WR Marcus Bennett (1.5 rec/g, 32.6 yds/g, 3 TD), WR Ronald Cleveland (1.0 rec/g, 24.5 yds/g, 2 TD), and WR Geraud Sanders (1.0 rec/g, 21.6 yds/g, 3 TD) are the leading receivers for the Falcons. Defensively, Air Force is allowing their opponents to an average of 34.4 ppg on 419.8 total yards per game (159.0 passing yds/g, 260.8 rushing yds/g). Air Force has forced 9 turnovers on the season and has an overall turnover margin of –7.
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The Boise State Broncos won their 6th straight game to improve to 8-2 (6-0 MW) on the season after defeating the Colorado State Rams 59-52 in OT, this past Saturday. Boise State looked like they were in trouble after falling behind by a 52-38 margin with just 3:02 left in regulation, however, scored two late TD’s to force OT and won it when it forced a Colorado State turnover in OT. Boise State outgained the Rams by a 641-570 margin and each team had 2 turnovers on the day. Leading the way for the Broncos was QB Brett Rypien who completed 23 of 43 passes for 331 yards and 4 TD and 1 INT. On the season, Boise State is averaging 33.9 ppg on 401.2 total yards per game (242.1 passing yds/game; 159.1 rushing yds/game). Offensively, Boise State has been led by WR duo of Cedrick Wilson (5.3 rec/g, 90.1 yds/g, 6 TD) and Jake Roh (3.8 rec/g, 40.8 yds/g, 9 TD). QB Brett Rypien has completed 63.0% of his passes for 11 TD and 4 INT while averaging 187.9 passing yds/g. Leading the way for the Broncos backfield has been the duo of Alexander Mattison (16.3 att/g, 91.9 yds/g, 10 TD) and Ryan Wolpin (7.6 att/g, 27.0 yds/g, 2 TD). Defensively, Boise State is holding their opponents to average 23.1 ppg on 334.1 total yards per game (212.2 passing yds/g, 121.9 rushing yds/g). Boise State has forced their opponents into committing 18 turnovers on the season and currently has a turnover margin of +8.
The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record however, are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 conference games. The Broncos are 5-1 ATS n their last 6 games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Air Force has lost two straight games and has suddenly has forgotten had to score the football as during their 2-game losing streak the Falcons have scored just 14 points. Boise State is currently undefeated in Mountain West play this season and has been outstanding on the offensive end as of late as the Broncos have averaged 47 ppg in their last 3 games. Air Force has little to no passing attack and as the Broncos have the 19th ranked rushing defense, I think Boise State does enough at home to cover this large spread.