Boise State vs. Oregon - Las Vegas Bowl - 12/16/17 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Oregon Ducks (7-5) at Boise State Broncos (10-3)
College Football: Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 3:30 pm (Sam Boyd Stadium)
The Line: Boise State Broncos +7.5 -- Over/Under: 63 See the Latest Odds
The #25 Boise State Broncos and the Oregon Ducks go head-to-head in the Las Vegas Bowl from Sam Boyd Stadium on ABC.
The #25 Boise State Broncos come into the Las Vegas bowl as the champions of the Mountain West Conference, finishing the 2017 campaign with a 10-3 record, including an 8-1 record in conference play, to sit atop the Mountain division in the MWC, all culminating in a 17-14 conference championship victory over Fresno State, avenging their loss to the Bulldogs from the week prior. Brett Rypien completed 195 of his 308 pass attempts, good for a 63.3% completion percentage along with almost 2,500 yards, 14 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Alexander Mattison was the team’s leading rusher with 1074 yards and 12 touchdowns and Cedrick Wilson led the BSU receiving corps with team-highs of 73 catches for 1290 yards with 6 touchdowns, while Jake Roh caught a team-high 9 TDs in the regular season. The Broncos defense finished 2nd in sacks in conference with 30 this season, while giving up an average of 337 yards of total offense per game.
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The Oregon Ducks reached the Las Vegas Bowl with a 7-5 record, including 4-5 in Pac-12 play to finish in 4th position in the Pac-12 North. The Ducks got off to a flying 4-1 start to the year, before dropping their next 3 games by a combined 82 points to sit at .500 before recovering with 3 wins in 4 games down the stretch, including a 69-10 romp over Oregon State in their season finale. Justin Herbert threw for 1750 yards, 13 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 113 of 170 passing, a 66.5% completion percentage while also rushing for 5 scores. Royce Freeman led the team with 1,475 rushing yards and a team-high 16 touchdowns, while Kani Benoit added 573 yards on the ground with 10 TDs of his own. Charles Nelson led the Ducks with 392 yards of total offense, while Dillon Mitchell caught a team-high 33 passes and Jacob Breeland led Oregon with 5 receiving touchdowns. The Oregon D combined for 32 sacks on the year, the 6th-highest total in the Pac-12, while allowing 360 yards of total offense per game.
Boise State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games against a team with a winning record while the under is 9-4-1 in their last 14 games in December. Oregon is 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a win and 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall while the under is 5-2 in their last 7 bowl games.
Mattison is listed as questionable for the Broncos right now, but even so, when the line initially opened at around 5 points, I was going to take Boise State and now that it’s up over a touchdown I’m all over the Broncos here. Boise State, albeit in a close game looked really good in avenging their loss to the 2nd-best team in the conference. Oregon was up and down for most of the season and the Ducks only beat 2 teams above .500 and they were one game above .500 at that. Boise State is a much better team than this line is giving them credit for, so I’ll take the free touchdown and the hook makes the play that sweeter.