Michigan State vs. Central Michigan - 9/29/18 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Photo by Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Central Michigan Chippewas (1-3) at Michigan State Spartans (2-1)
College Football: Saturday, September 29, 2018 at 12:00 pm (Spartan Stadium)
The Line: Michigan State Spartans -28.5 -- Over/Under: Click Here for the Latest Odds
The Central Michigan Chippewas and Michigan State Spartans meet Saturday in college football action at Spartan Stadium.
The Central Michigan Chippewas look for their second win over a ranked team since 2016 to rebound from a rough 1-3 start. The Central Michigan Chippewas have split their last eight road games. Tony Poljan is completing 57.1 percent of his passes for 344 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions. Poljan and Tommy Lazzaro have combined for three touchdown passes and six interception this season. Cameron Cole and Julian Hicks have combined for 228 receiving yards and one touchdown while Brandon Childress has eight receptions. The Central Michigan Chippewas ground game is averaging 120 yards per contest, and Jonathan Ward leads the way with 156 yards on 52 carries. Defensively, Central Michigan is allowing 23.8 points and 334.3 yards per game. Malik Fountain leads the Central Michigan Chippewas with 47 tackles, Mike Danna has four sacks and Xavier Crawford has one interception.
The Michigan State Spartans hope to remain undefeated at home to keep pace in the competitive Big Ten East. The Michigan State Spartans have won each of their last five home games. Brian Lewerke is completing 66 percent of his passes for 814 yards, five touchdowns and four interceptions. Lewerke has two or more touchdown passes in five of his last nine games. Cody White and Felton Davis III have combined for 472 receiving yards and three touchdowns while Darrell Stewart Jr. has 14 receptions. The Michigan State Spartans ground game is averaging 119.6 yards per contest, and LJ Scott leads the way with 103 yards on 30 carries. Defensively, Michigan State is allowing 22.7 points and 356.3 yards per game. Joe Bachie leads the Michigan State Spartans with 30 tackles, Kenny Willekes has three sacks and Khari Willis has one interception.
The Chippewas are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games, 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games in September and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Spartans are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games. The Chippewas are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Michigan State and the road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
The Michigan State Spartans are obviously the better team here, as Central Michigan was blown out by Kansas and Kentucky. Heck, the Chippewas didn't put Maine away last week until the fourth quarter. However, Michigan State isn't the team you want to be laying big chalk with, as nine of their last 12 victories have been decided by less than 20 points. The Central Michigan Chippewas have covered seven of their last 10 games as a double-digit underdog. The Michigan State Spartans have failed to cover six of their last eight games when favored by at least 17 points. This is more of fading MSU and big numbers than anything else. I'll take a shot with the Central Michigan Chippewas and the boatload of points if forced to pick this game.