Mississippi State vs. Florida - 9/29/18 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Mississippi State vs. Florida - 9/29/18 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports

Florida Gators (3-1) at Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-1)

College Football: Saturday, September 29, 2018 at 6:00 pm (Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field)

The Line: Mississippi State Bulldogs -7.5 -- Over/Under: Click to Get Latest Betting Odds

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The Florida Gators and the Mississippi State Bulldogs square off in week in a week 5 SEC conference college football tilt from Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, MS on Saturday evening.

The Florida Gators come into this one looking to build on back-to-back wins, including a 47-21 beatdown of Tennessee in their last outing. Feleipe Franks leads UF with 742 yards passing, 12 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions in completing 52.6% of his 95 pass attempts. Dameon Pierce has racked up 225 yards and a pair of rushing TDs, while Jordan Scarlett put up 182 yards on 30 carries with 2 rushing TDs of his own. Freddie Swain and Van Jefferson each have 8 receptions and 3 touchdown grabs, with Swain leading the Gators with 193 yards to Jefferson’s 127. As a team, Florida is averaging 383 yards of total offense and 41 points per game while allowing 340.2 yards of total offense and just 16 points per game this season.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs will be hoping to stay in the top 25 after suffering their first loss of the season as the then #14 ranked Bulldogs were taken down by Kentucky by a final score of 28-7. Nick Fitzgerald had thrown for 542 yards, 4 touchdowns and 2 picks on 41 of 80 passing this year, while backup QB Keytaon Thompson leads the Bulldogs with 5 touchdown passes. Kylin Hill has racked up a team-high 307 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns while Fitzgerald has taken his team-high 50 carries and turned them into 286 yards and a Bulldogs-high 5 rushing scores. Osirus Mitchell leads MSU with 184 receiving yards on 9 receptions with a pair of touchdowns while Stephen Guidry is right behind with 174 receiving yards. The Bulldogs are averaging 491 yards of total offense and 39.2 points per game while owning one of the toughest defenses in the country, giving up the 7th-fewest yards of total offense per game with 269.2, the 9th-fewest yards against through the air with 148.2 and the 11th-fewest points against per game with 13.5 allowed per contest this season.

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Florida is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games while the over is 13-6 in their last 19 games in the month of September. Mississippi State is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games and 23-5 ATS in their last 28 home games against a team with a winning road record while the under is 5-1 in their last 6 games overall. Florida is 0-3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these two teams.

The Gators handled the Volunteers in their last outing, so the points are worth a look. However, Mississippi State has to be angry after being shown up by Kentucky after there was pre-game beef and the Bulldogs are lucky to still be in the top-25. I think the Bulldogs show up on Saturday and win by a couple of touchdowns as Florida has struggled ATS against the SEC and has struggled in this matchup specifically.

See Who The Experts Picked To Win This One

Chris’s Pick Mississippi State -7.5

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Sports Chat Place site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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